The drastic demographic decline of Eastern Asia
In our earlier notes, we have looked at the projected progression of population in the world and its continents and in Africa and its different Regions from 1950 to 2100, based on the estimates and projections of the recently released World Population Prospects 2024 published by the United Nations.
In this note, we look in detail at the population trends within Asia and its major geographical regions. We notice that while the population of all regions of Asia has grown between 1950 and 2020, the growth has been much faster in the predominantly Muslim regions of Central Asia and Western Asia, and it has been much slower in Eastern Asia. Central Asia and Western Asia are also projected to keep growing beyond the twenty-first century, while the population of Eastern Asia has already started shrinking and that of the other two regions, Southern Asia and South-Eastern Asia, shall begin to decline much before the end of the century.
As a consequence of the relatively slow growth of Eastern Asia and the projected sharp decline in its population, its share in the population of Asia has already declined from about half in 1950 to about one-third now and is projected to decline to about one-sixth by the end of the century. The share of Southern Asia in the same period would rise from around one-third in 1950 to more than half in 2100.
This drastic reordering of the relative shares of the two most populous regions of Asia is likely to have unpredictable economic and geopolitical consequences that need to be carefully studied and watched. The decline in the share of Eastern Asia is similar to the sharp decline in the share of Europe in the population of the world that we have discussed earlier.
The data shows another worrying possibility. It seems that Southern Asia, though it has grown more robustly than Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, has already lost it demographic vitality as evidenced by the projected decline of the TFR of the region below the replacement level by 2030. The projected growth trajectory of the population and the very low GDP of the region compared to the rest of Asia indicate that the population of Southern Asia is likely to begin aging without ever becoming rich.
In our next note, we shall study the differential in the patterns of population-growth for the most populous countries of Asia, including China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Indonesia, and their consequences. That would place the concerns that we have expressed in this note in starker terms.
Population of Asia and its Regions
Population Growth, 1950-2100
In Table 1 below, we compile estimates and projections of the population of Asia and the five geographical regions into which the United Nations divides the continent. The data is taken from the latest edition of World Population Prospects. [1] In the following, we refer to this source as WPP 2024. In the last two columns of the Table, we give the peak population that Asia and each of its geographical regions are expected to reach in the course of the twenty-first century and the year when this is likely to happen. For comparison, we have also included the data for the world as a whole.
Table 1: Population of Asia and its Regions, 1950-2100 (in thousands) | ||||||
Period/Region | 1950 | 2020 | 2050 | 2100 | Peak | Year |
World | 2,471,424 | 7,851,415 | 9,644,036 | 10,186,608 | 10,289,515 | 2084 |
Asia | 1,354,938 | 4,671,400 | 5,278,097 | 4,623,706 | 5,288,539 | 2054 |
Central Asia | 17,327 | 75,721 | 113,048 | 149,753 | >149,753 | >2100 |
Eastern Asia | 666,410 | 1,665,039 | 1,472,940 | 775,340 | 1,666,027 | 2021 |
Southern Asia | 459,234 | 1,972,729 | 2,500,385 | 2,493,458 | 2,629,138 | 2073 |
South-Eastern Asia | 162,610 | 672,276 | 774,212 | 680,895 | 775,885 | 2054 |
Western Asia | 49,357 | 285,635 | 417,511 | 524,260 | >524,260 | >2100 |
Note: Numbers for 1950 and 2020 are estimates and those for 2050 and 2100 are medium projections of WPP 2024. | ||||||
As we have pointed out in our earlier post on the demography of the world and its continents, the population of Asia has grown at a considerably rapid pace between 1950 and 2020, but the growth has not been comparable to that of Africa. What is more, the growth impulse of Asia seems to have been already exhausted. In the seventy years since 1950, the population of Asia has grown from 1.35 to 4.67 billion. In the next 30 years, it shall grow only marginally to reach 5.28 billion in 2050. Soon after that, from 2054 onwards, the population of the continent shall begin declining and by the end of the century it shall fall to 4.62 billion, which is somewhat below the level of 2020.
This is the situation for Asia as a whole. But as seen in Table 1, the pattern of growth of the five geographical regions of Asia is quite distinct. Population of Eastern Asia has already reached its peak of 1.67 billion in 2021 and is likely to shrink sharply to 1.47 billion by 2050 and to merely 0.77 billion by the end of the century. Population of South-Eastern Asia is likely to reach its peak of 0.78 billion in 2054 and shall than shrink to 0.68 billion by the end of the century. Southern Asia, the region in which we are situated, shall continue to grow for another about 50 years before reaching its peak of 2.63 billion in 2073. After that, population of the region shall begin to decline and reach 2.49 billion in 2100. Central Asia and Western Asia, however, are projected to keep growing beyond the end of the twenty-first century.
To give an understanding of these differences, we have compiled, in Table 2, the number of times the population of Asia and its different geographical regions has multiplied and is projected to multiply between 1950 and 2100.
| Table 2: Multiplication Factor of Population between 1950 and 2100 | |||||
Period/ | 1950-2020 | 2020-2050 | 2050-2100 | 1950-2100 | 2020-2100 | |
World | 3.18 | 1.23 | 1.06 | 4.12 | 1.30 | |
Asia | 3.45 | 1.13 | 0.88 | 3.41 | 0.99 | |
Central Asia | 4.37 | 1.49 | 1.32 | 8.64 | 1.98 | |
Eastern Asia | 2.50 | 0.88 | 0.53 | 1.16 | 0.47 | |
Southern Asia | 4.30 | 1.27 | 1.00 | 5.43 | 1.26 | |
South-Eastern Asia | 4.13 | 1.15 | 0.88 | 4.19 | 1.01 | |
Western Asia | 5.79 | 1.46 | 1.26 | 10.62 | 1.84 | |
Growth between 1950-2020
Between 1950 and 2020, all regions of Asia have grown. But the population of Eastern Asia has multiplied by only 2.5 times, which is slower than the average of the world. Western Asia, on the other hand has multiplied by 5.8 times, which is comparable to the growth of Africa as a whole. (See, Table 2 of our note on Africa). The other three regions of Asia, Central Asia, Southern Asia and South-Eastern Asia have multiplied between 4 and 4.5 times.
Growth between 2020-2100
Between 2020 and the end of the century, the growth of all regions of Asia is expected to slow down considerably. As a result, population of Asia as a whole is likely to be nearly the same at the end of the century as in 2020. This is largely because the projected sharp decline in the population of Eastern Asia to just 47 percent of what it was in 2020. (See the last column of Table 2). Population of South-Eastern Asia shall remain almost the same as in 2020. Between 2020 and 2100, the population of Southern Asia shall rise by about a quarter. The other two regions, Central and Western Asia, however, are likely to keep growing and nearly double their population in this period of decline or marginal growth in other parts of Asia.
Growth between 1950-2100
Looking at the whole period from 1950, when the population of the non-European world began rising sharply following decolonisation of a large part of the world, to the end of the current century, when the growth impulse of this phase of human history is likely to be exhausted in most parts of the world, we find that the population of Asia would have multiplied by 3.4 times, while that of the world would have grown by 4.1 times and that of Africa by nearly 17 times.
The overall growth of Asia in this period is pulled down considerably by the almost negligible growth registered by Eastern Asia. As a result of the decline in population that has set in in this region from the 2020s, population of Eastern Asia in 2100 is projected to be only 16 percent above its population in 1950. This is similar to the projected growth of 9 percent in the population of Europe in this period. (See Table 2 of our note the World and its Continents). Thus, the decline in the relative population of Eastern Asia, comprising mainly China, is nearly as drastic as that of Europe.
The other regions of Asia have shown considerable growth in this period. The population of Western Asia is likely to multiply by nearly 11 times between 1950 to 2100 approaching that of Africa, which is projected to multiply by 17 times in this period. Central Asia would multiply by nearly 9 times. South-Eastern Asia and Southern Asia would multiply by a more restrained factor of 4.2 and 5.1, respectively.
Changes in the share and density of different regions of Asia
The large differential in growth of different Eastern Asia and other regions of Asia would lead to a drastic decline in the share of this region in the population of Asia. In Table 3, we have calculated the shares of different region of Asia at several points between 1950 and 2100. In this Table, we have also shown the area and density of population of the different regions.
Table 3: Share of different regions in the population of Asia, 1950-2100 | ||||||||
Share in the | 1950 | 2020 | 2050 | 2100 | Area | Density | Density | Density |
Asia | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 31,033 | 153.3 | 134.3 | 44.5 |
Central Asia | 1.28 | 1.62 | 2.14 | 3.24 | 4,003 | 20.9 | 27.7 | 4.8 |
Eastern Asia | 49.18 | 35.64 | 27.91 | 16.77 | 11,560 | 140.5 | 74.0 | 56.2 |
Southern Asia | 33.89 | 42.23 | 47.37 | 53.93 | 6,419 | 156.2 | 155.8 | 36.4 |
South-Eastern Asia | 12.00 | 14.39 | 14.67 | 14.73 | 4,341 | 322.5 | 283.6 | 78.0 |
Western Asia | 3.64 | 6.11 | 7.91 | 11.34 | 4,805 | 64.6 | 81.1 | 11.2 |
Note: Area is in million km2 and density in persons/km2. This data is taken from the UN data for 2024. [2] Density in 2100 is calculated by multiplying the density of 2024 with the projected multiplication of population between 2020 and 2100 in Table 2 above. Density in 1950 is calculated by dividing the density of 2024 with the multiplication factor for 1950-2020 in Table 2. Total surface area in the table is about 90 mn km2 more than the sum of the regions. The UN sheet we are using does not separately give the area of Southern Asia and Central Asia. We have calculated it by adding the area of individual countries. | ||||||||
At the beginning of the modern period of high demographic growth across the world, in 1950, the population of Eastern Asia formed nearly half, 49.2 percent to be exact, of the population of Asia. That share has been declining continuously and sharply since then. In 2020, the share of Eastern Asia had declined from half to around one-third, at 35.6 percent. And by the end of the century, it is projected to decline to just about one-sixth, 16.8 percent, of the population of Asia. This decline of Eastern Asia from about one-half to one-sixth of Asia is the most significant aspect of the changing demographic profile of Asia in the modern period. As we have said earlier, this decline in the share of Eastern Asia in Asia is almost as drastic as the decline of the share of Europe in the World.
With the decline of the share of Eastern Asia by 32.5 percentage points, the share of other regions of Asia has risen correspondingly. Southern Asia, with its large population and robust growth that is projected to continue up to 2073, would gain the most, with its share rising from about 34 to 54 percent between 1950 and 2100. The share of South-Eastern Asia is projected to rise marginally from 12.0 to 14.7 percent. Central Asia and Western Asia are projected to grow the most rapidly but, since their total population is small, the absolute rise in their share seems modest. The share of Central Asia would rise from a meagre 1.28 percent in 1950 to 3.24 percent in 2100 and that of Western Asia from 3.64 to 11.34 percent. Notice that this implies a near tripling of the share of Central Asia and even more pronounced increase in the share of Western Asia. The latter was less than one-third the share of South-Eastern Asia; in 2100, the share of the two regions would be comparable.
Density of different regions of Asia
As seen in the last column of Table 3, density of population in Asia was only 44.5 persons per square kilometre in 1950, much lower than the density of 131 persons per km2 in Western Europe at that stage. Now, in the twenty-twenties, he density in Asia has risen to 153.3 and is projected to decline slightly to 134.3 in 2100. At that point, the density of population in Asia would be thrice what it was in 1950.
In the same period, the density of population of the mountainous Central Asia would multiply 6 times, from a very scanty 4.8 persons per km2 to 27.7. The largely desert region of Western Asia is projected to see its population density rise more than seven times from a scanty11.2 in 1950 to a fairly dense 81.1 in 2100. At that point, the density of Western Asia would have surpassed that of Eastern Asia.
Southern Asia, which encompasses the largest expanse of highly fertile land in the world in the form of the Sindhu-Ganga plains, has been historically among the most densely inhabited parts of the world. Yet, in 1950, the density of population in Southern Asia was only 36.4, far lower than the density of Eastern Asia at 56.2 and less than half that of South-Eastern Asia at 78.0. Such was the deleterious impact of the colonial British rule over this region. With the growth in population after 1950, the density of population in Southern India has reached a much higher level of 156.2 in 2024 and is likely to decline only slightly to 155.8 in 2100.
The density of population of South-Eastern Asia has risen to 322.5 in 2024 and is likely to decline to 283.6 in 2100. At that stage, this region would be the most densely inhabited part of Asia, considerably ahead of Southern Asia at 155.8. The relative situation of the two regions in this regard would be similar to what it was in 1950.
Eastern Asia had a density of 56.2 persons per km2 in 1950. It has risen to 140.5 in 2024, but is projected to decline to just 74.0 at the end of the century. At that stage, this would be the second least densely populated region of Asia, ahead of only Central Asia at 27.7, but behind Western Asia at 81.1 persons per km2.
Fertility and Mortality Indicators
In Table 4 and 5 below, we have compiled fertility and mortality indicators for Asia and its different regions.
Table 4: Fertility indicators of Asia and its regions, 1950-2100 | ||||||||
World/ | TFR | NRR | ||||||
Continent/ Region | 1950 | 2020 | 2050 | 2100 | 1950 | 2020 | 2050 | 2100 |
World | 4.85 | 2.32 | 2.10 | 1.84 | 1.63 | 1.06 | 0.99 | 0.88 |
Asia | 5.69 | 1.97 | 1.82 | 1.72 | 1.78 | 0.91 | 0.87 | 0.83 |
Central Asia | 4.90 | 3.10 | 2.43 | 1.91 | 1.89 | 1.45 | 1.16 | 0.92 |
Eastern Asia | 5.50 | 1.23 | 1.20 | 1.37 | 1.83 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.66 |
Southern Asia | 5.93 | 2.29 | 1.95 | 1.78 | 1.69 | 1.05 | 0.93 | 0.86 |
South-Eastern Asia | 5.69 | 2.02 | 1.76 | 1.69 | 1.80 | 0.94 | 0.84 | 0.81 |
Western Asia | 6.17 | 2.62 | 2.15 | 1.79 | 1.95 | 1.24 | 1.03 | 0.87 |
Table 5: Mortality Indicators of Asia and its regions, 1950-2100 | ||||||||
World/ | Crude Death Rate per 1,000 | Life Expectancy at Birth | ||||||
Continent/ Region | 1950 | 2020 | 2050 | 2100 | 1950 | 2020 | 2050 | 2100 |
World | 19.4 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 12.1 | 46.4 | 71.9 | 77.0 | 81.7 |
Asia | 22.8 | 7.2 | 9.9 | 13.6 | 42.0 | 73.6 | 79.3 | 85.1 |
Central Asia | 16.1 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 53.4 | 70.6 | 76.3 | 83.1 |
Eastern Asia | 22.9 | 7.6 | 14.0 | 20.4 | 43.2 | 78.9 | 83.8 | 90.1 |
Southern Asia | 24.0 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 12.6 | 39.9 | 69.7 | 77.0 | 84.0 |
South-Eastern Asia | 20.3 | 7.5 | 10.4 | 13.8 | 43.1 | 71.1 | 76.2 | 82.8 |
Western Asia | 22.3 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 9.3 | 43.8 | 73.9 | 79.6 | 85.0 |
Asia
The Tables show that the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of Asia, which was high at 4.85 in 1950, has declined to a modest 2.32 in 2020. It is projected to fall below the replacement level of 2.1 soon after 2050 and reach 1.84 in 2100. The Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) of Asia at that point would be 0.83. The Crude Death Rate (CDR) would rise to 13.6 after declining to as low as 7.2 in 2020, indicating aging of the population. Life Expectancy at Birth in Asia has improved considerably from 46.4 years in 1950 to 71.9 years in 2020 and is projected to rise to 81.7 years by the end of the century.
Eastern Asia
In Eastern Asia, the TFR had already fallen below the replacement level in 1991. It has declined to as low as 1.23 in 2020. After 2050, the TFR is projected to begin rising slowly, but shall still be at the very low level of 1.37 at the end of the century. The NRR, which has reached the level of 0.58 in 2020, is likely to rise slightly to the level of 0.66. The CDR in this region has declined steeply from 22.9 in 1950 to 7.6 in 2020; this, however, is expected to rise to 20.4 by the end of the century, because of the rapid aging of the population. Life Expectancy in this region is projected to reach 90.1 years in 2100, the highest of all regions of Asia.
South-Eastern Asia
The TFR of South-Eastern Asia has also fallen below the replacement level already by 2020 and is projected to continue declining to reach the level of 1.69 in 2100. The NRR, which is 0.94 in 2020 is expected to fall further to 0.81 in 2100. This is considerably better than the NRR of 0.66 for Eastern Asia at that stage. In 2100, the TFR of this region at 1.69 would be higher and the CDR at 13.8 would be much lower than that of Eastern Asia. Life Expectancy at Birth in this region has improved considerably from 43.1 years in 1950 to 71.1 years in 2020. It is projected to improve further to 82.8 years in 2100.
Southern Asia
The TFR for Southern Asia is projected to fall below the replacement level of 2.10 after 2030 and to further decline to 1.78 at the end of the century. The NRR is also projected to fall below 1 around the same time and to reach the level of 0.86 in 2100. Between 1950 and 2020, the CDR of the region has decreased considerably from 24.0 to 7.1 per thousand. This shall rise to 12.6 by 2100 but shall remain below the average of Asia. Life Expectancy at just 39.9 years in 1950 was the lowest of all regions of Asia. It has improved to 69.7 years in 2020, which is still the lowest in Asia. It is likely to rise to 84.0 years in 2100, at which state this region would be slightly ahead of Central Asia and South-Eastern Asia on this score.
Central Asia
The TFR of Central Asia at 4.90 in 1950 was the lowest of all regions of Asia. In 2020, it has declined to 3.10, which happens to be the highest of all regions. It is projected to remain above the replacement level beyond 2050 and fall below 2.10 only after 2073. It shall fall further to 1.91 in 2100, at which stage also it would be the highest in Asia. The CDR of this region was also the lowest at 16.1 in 1950; it is projected to be 9.3 in 2100, which would be lower than all other regions, except Western Asia, where the CDR shall be the same. In 1950, the Life Expectancy at Birth was the highest in Central Asia at 53.4 years, more than 11 years higher than the average of Asia at 42.0. That average of Asia was pulled down considerably by the abysmally low figure of 39.9 years for Southern Asia. In 2100, the Life Expectancy of this region is projected to be 83.1 years, which would be below the average of Asia and below all other regions except South-Eastern Asia.
Western Asia
The TFR of Western Asia at 6.17 in 1950 was the highest in Asia at that stage. It has reached 2.62 in 2022, which is the second highest in the continent after Central Asia at 3.10. It is projected to keep declining, but shall remain above the replacement level even in 2050. It shall reach below 2.10 only in 2055. In 2100, the TFR of the region would be 1.79, about the same as that of Southern Asia at that point. The NRR of the region was 1.95 in 1950, which was the highest of all regions at that time. It shall remain above 1.0 even in 2050 and would reach 0.87 in 2100, similar to the NRR of Southern Asia at that stage.
The Crude Death Rate of Western Asia at 5.3 deaths per thousand in 2020 is far below other regions. In 2100, it is projected to rise to 9.3 deaths per thousand. At that stage also, it shall be considerably lower than other regions except Central Asia, which would have the same CDR. Life Expectancy of this region at 43.8 years in 1950 was the second highest after Central Asia. In 2100, it is projected to rise to 85.0 years, which would also be the second highest at that stage, after Eastern Asia.
Economic Indicators
Is the differential pattern of growth of the five regions of Asia related to their economic status? In Table 6, we have compiled the GDP figures for Asia and its different regions. The data is for 2022, when some economic normalcy had been restored following the Covid epidemic and is taken from the UN statistical dataset. [3]
Table 6: Economic Indicators | |||
Region | GDP | GDP Per Capita | Rate of Growth |
World | 9,01,26,325 | 12,647 | 3.1 |
Asia | 3,53,57,380 | 8,049 | 3.6 |
Central Asia | 4,10,564 | 5,118 | 4.0 |
Eastern Asia | 2,36,19,905 | 15,063 | 2.4 |
Southern Asia | 44,33,025 | 2,372 | 6.3 |
South-Eastern Asia | 32,43,635 | 5,330 | 5.6 |
Western Asia | 36,50,250 | 14,217 | 6.6 |
Numbers are for 2022. GDP in current prices (million US Dollars). GDP per Capita in US Dollars. GDP real rate of growth in percent. | |||
As seen in the Table, GDP per Capita of Asia is one-third lower than the average of the world. Yet the average TFR of Asia at 1.97 in 2020 is considerably below the average of the world at 2.32. Amongst the different regions of Asia, Eastern Asia and Western Asia are the richest with GDP per capita of 15.1 and 14.2 thousand US Dollars, respectively. The TFR of Western Asia is high at 2.62 and that of Eastern Asia as low as 1.23. Western Asia has experienced the highest growth in population since 1950 and is projected to keep growing beyond the current century. Eastern Asia has experienced the lowest demographic growth since 1950 and its population has already begun to shrink rapidly.
Central Asia and South-Eastern Asia have similar numbers for GDP per capita at slightly above 5 thousand US Dollars. The TFR of Central Asia is high at 3.10 while that of South-Eastern Asia at 2.02 is below the replacement level in 2020. Over the remaining decades of the century, the population of South-Eastern Asia is projected to remain largely unchanged, while that of Central Asia is project to double.
Southern Asia is the poorest of all regions of Asia with per capita GDP of 2,372 US Dollars, which is less than 30 percent of the average of the continent. Yet the TFR of the region in 2020 is slightly below the Asian average and far below that of the much richer Central and Western Asia. The population of this region is projected to stabilize and then begin shrinking by 2073, while the Central and Western Asia shall keep growing into the next century.
The demographic growth pattern of different regions thus has no obvious or direct correlation with their economic status. Demographic parameters of a society are determined by a multiplicity factors. In some ways, the demographic processes seem autonomous of physical factors and seem to be propelled by deeper social and civilisational urges of different people.
However, Table 6 raises the disturbing possibility of the population of Southern Asia, of which India forms the largest component, shrinking and turning grey before becoming rich.
Religious composition of different regions of Asia
In this section, we explore whether the differences in the demographic growth of the five regions of Asia are related to their religious profile. [4] The two fastest growing regions, Central Asia and Western Asia, are indeed predominantly Muslim. Nearly 88 percent of the people of Central Asia are Muslim. In Western Asia, Muslims form nearly 93 percent of the population.
The religious composition of other regions is more complex. South-Eastern Asia is about 40 percent Muslim and the remaining population is nearly equally divided between Buddhism and Christianity. This region has shown modest population growth. The population of the largest and the most populous country of this region, Indonesia, is 87 percent Muslim. As we shall see in a subsequent note, the growth of population has been relatively modest even in Indonesia. Obviously, the demographic growth patterns, though influenced by religion, are not determined by religion alone.
The population of Southern Asia comprises about one-third Muslims. The remaining two-thirds are mostly Hindus. Like South-Eastern Asia, demographic growth of this region has also been modest compared to Central and Western Asia. However, it is known that the growth of Muslims in this region has considerably outstripped that of Hindus. The WPP does not provide data according to religion. In a subsequent note, we shall discuss the growth of the most populous countries of the region, some of whom are predominantly Muslim.
Eastern Asia, which has experienced the weakest demographic growth and where the population is projected to shrink drastically in the course of this century, has a complex religious profile. The main religions of this region are Buddhism and Eastern Religions like Taoism, Confucianism and Shintoism. In the period under consideration, many of the followers of these religions have been registering themselves as atheists. There are not many Muslims here, though Christianity is making inroads in some parts.
It seems that adherents of Buddhism and other Eastern religions are experiencing a sharp decline in their natural growth in the modern period. Buddhist populations are declining all over the world. We have described the sharp decline in their growth in India in an earlier note. We have also described the very remarkable and worrisome shrinking of population in the Indian Buddhist region of Ladakh.
But religion in matters of demography seems a proxy for larger civilisational manifestations. The projected drastic decline in the population of Eastern Asia is so large that it is bound to have many reasons and, as we have said earlier, is likely to have drastic and unpredictable economic and geopolitical consequences.
Conclusions
1. Like other continents of the world, the population of Asia has grown rapidly between 1950 and 2020. But, as we have seen in our earlier note on the population of the world and its continents, the growth has been lower than that of the African and Latin American continents. The figures in this note show that this relatively lower growth of Asia is largely because of the rather moderate growth registered by Eastern Asia.
2. Of the five geographical regions into which the United Nations divides Asia, the Western and Central Asia have registered the highest growth during 1950 and 2020. Both of these regions are projected to keep growing beyond the twenty-first century. By 2100, the population of Western Asia would have multiplied by nearly 11 times and that of Central Asia by nearly 9 times since 1950. These multiplication factors are comparable to the growth of some of the regions of Africa.
3. The two regions of Asia that have and are projected to grow the most, Central and Western Asia, are predominantly Muslim. It is noteworthy that the demographic parameters that we have compiled show that the two regions have not only relatively higher fertility but also much lower mortality compared to other regions of Asia. Western Asia is also among the richest regions of Asia in terms of GDP per capita, while Central Asia is economically better off or comparable to other regions which have shown much lower demographic vitality
4. The population of South-Eastern Asia has multiplied by more than 4 times between 1950 and 2020. But the growth has slowed down and is projected to turn negative soon after 2050. By the end of the century, the population of this region would be about the same as in 2020 and would have multiplied by about 4 times from its level in 1950.
5. The population of Southern Asia has multiplied by 4.3 times between 1950 and 2020. Like in other parts of Asia, the growth impulse seems to be getting exhausted and it is projected that the population shall begin declining by 2073. At the end of the century, the population of the region would be only about a quarter more than now in 2020. Between 1950 to 2100, the population would have multiplied by 5.43 times, which is the highest after Central and Western Asia. Individual countries within Southern Asia have grown very differently. As we shall see in a subsequent note, the population of Pakistan in the same period has multiplied by a factor comparable with Western Asia and parts of Africa.
6. In terms of GDP per capita, Southern Asia is far behind other regions of Asia. But the region seems to have nearly exhausted its demographic vitality. This gives rise to the possibility that the population of this part of Asia would begin aging without achieving the affluence that is usually associated with regions where the populations begin to grey.
7. Eastern Asia has experienced a much slower growth than other parts of Asia. Between 1950 and 2020, the population of the region has multiplied by only 2.50 and it has already begun declining sharply. By 2100, the population of this region would be less than half of what is in 2020 and it would have grown by a mere 16 percent since 1950.
8. Because of this lower growth of population in Eastern Asia and the projected sharp decline, the share of the region in the population of Asia has declined from 49 percent in 1950 to 36 percent now in 2020 and is projected to decline to less than 17 percent in 2100. The share of Southern Asia, on the other hand, has risen from 34 percent in 1950 to 42 percent in 2020 and is projected to rise 54 percent. The share of the relatively less populous regions of Western and Central Asia is also projected to improve significantly, while South-Eastern Asia shall gain marginally in its share.
9. The decline in the share of Eastern Asia is comparable to the decline of Europe that we have discussed earlier. The decline would lead to a complete reordering of the share of different parts of Asia in the population of the continent. This drastic demographic decline of Eastern Asia is likely to have unpredictable geopolitical consequences, which need to be closely watched and studied. The drastically changed distribution of population across different regions of Asia would present an entirely new set of issues about which we, being a major part of Asia, need to be deeply concerned.
[1] World Population Prospects 2024, Compact Estimates and Medium Projection Table, available at https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/EXCEL_FILES/1_General/WPP2024_GEN_F01_DEMOGRAPHIC_INDICATORS_COMPACT.xlsx
[2] https://data.un.org/_Docs/SYB/CSV/SYB67_1_202411_Population,%20Surface%20Area%20and%20Density.csv
[3] https://data.un.org/_Docs/SYB/CSV/SYB67_230_202411_GDP%20and%20GDP%20Per%20Capita.csv
[4] Population of different religions in Asia have grown very differently in the modern period. We have discussed the religious demographic changes in the population of different regions of Asia up to 2010 in a series of earlier notes, Asia 1, Asia 1 Maps, Asia 2, Asia 2 Maps, Asia 3, Asia 3 Maps.
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