The decline of China, Rise of Pakistan and Indian Religions turning a minority in the Indian region
In our previous note, we have looked at the projected progression of population in Asia and its different geographical regions from 1950 to 2100, based on the estimates and projections of the recently released World Population Prospects 2024 published by the United Nations.
In that note we noticed the projected sharp decline in the population of Eastern Asia, which is likely to drastically change the relative shares of Southern and Eastern Asia. Such reordering of the relative shares of the two most populous regions of the continent, as also of the world, is certain to lead to unpredictable economic and geopolitical consequences.
In this note, we further concretise the issue by looking at the projected population trajectory of the five most populous countries of Asia: China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Indonesia.
The projected progress of population in these countries is likely to lead to the following three very significant consequences:
One, sharp decline in the share of China. In 1950, China formed 40 percent of the population of Asia. In 2020, its share is reduced to 30 percent. It is likely to decline further to 24 percent in 2050 and less than 14 percent in 2100. Share of the Indian region, comprising India, Pakistan and Bangladesh together, has correspondingly risen from 31 percent in 1950 to nearly 39 percent in 2020 and is projected to rise to 43 percent in 2050 and 48 percent in 2100.
Two, explosive rise in the share of Pakistan. The projected rise in the population of Pakistan and its share in Asia is almost as dramatic as the decline of China. Between 1950 and 2100, the population of Pakistan is projected multiply by more than 14.4 times while that of India shall multiply by only 4.4 times. The share of Pakistan in the population of Asia has risen from 2.6 percent in 1950 to 5 percent now in 2020 and is projected to rise to 11 percent in 2100. At that stage, the population of Pakistan shall be four-fifths that of China and a third of India. In 1950, soon after the Partition, the population of Pakistan was only about a tenth of India.
Three, adherents of Indian Religion turning a minority in the Indian region. As a consequence of the explosive rise in the almost entirely Muslim population of Pakistan and the steady rise of the share of Muslims in India and Bangladesh, Muslims shall form at least between 45 to 48 percent of the population of the Indian region by the end of the century. The share of Christians in 2100 is likely to be no less than 5 percent. Therefore, by the end of the century, the followers of religions of Indian origin in the Indian region are certain to become a minority.
Population of Asia and its five most populous countries
Population Growth, 1950-2100
China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Indonesia are the five most populous countries of Asia. Of these, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are in Southern Asia. The three comprised a single country before the Partition that the British carried out on the eve of their withdrawal from India in 1947. China is the most populous country of Eastern Asia; it was the most populous country of the world up to 2023, when it ceded that position to India. Indonesia, currently the largest Muslim country of the world, is in South-Eastern Asia. The largest country in the Muslim-dominated Western Asia is Egypt with a population of 108 million in 2020, of which around a hundred million are Muslim. The other Muslim-dominated region of Asia, Central Asia, has a total population of only 76 million. Though these two regions are expected to grow faster than other parts of Asia, yet the five most populous countries of Asia that we describe here are likely to retain that status even in 2050.
Table 1: Population of Most Populous Countries of Asia, 1950-2100 (in thousands) | ||||||
Period/Region | 1950 | 2020 | 2050 | 2100 | Peak | Year |
World | 2,471,424 | 7,851,415 | 9,644,036 | 10,186,608 | 10,289,515 | 2084 |
Asia | 1,354,938 | 4,671,400 | 5,278,097 | 4,623,706 | 5,288,539 | 2054 |
China | 539,190 | 1,425,436 | 1,265,452 | 638,685 | 1,426,776 | 2021 |
India | 342,592 | 1,395,971 | 1,677,687 | 1,509,107 | 1,701,356 | 2062 |
Pakistan | 35,500 | 232,776 | 369,611 | 510,572 | 510,572 | >2100 |
Bangladesh | 40,816 | 165,622 | 214,180 | 209,120 | 224,685 | 2079 |
Indonesia | 68,081 | 273,748 | 320,462 | 296,704 | 322,609 | 2059 |
Note: Numbers for 1950 and 2020 are estimates and those for 2050 and 2100 are medium projections of WPP 2024. | ||||||
In Table 1, we have compiled the estimated and projected growth of population in these five countries between 1950 and 2100. As in the previous notes in this series, the data for the past and projected population here is taken from the latest edition of World Population Prospects. [1] We have been referring to this source as WPP 2024. In the last two columns of Table 1, we give the peak population that Asia and each of the five most populous countries are expected to reach in the course of the twenty-first century and the year when this is likely to happen. For comparison, we have also included the data for the world as a whole.
In our earlier notes, we have discussed the trends for Asia in the context of the world and of the five geographical regions into which WPP 2024 divides the Asian continent. As described there and as seen in the Table above, the population of Asia is likely to reach its peak by 2054 at around 5.29 billion and then decline fairly sharply to 4.62 billion by the end of the century.
China
The decline is projected to be the most precipitous in China, where the population has peaked already in 2021, at 1.46 billion. This decline has made China, historically the most populous country of world, fall to the second place in 2023, when the population of China is estimated to have been 1,424 million and that of India 1,432 million.
WPP 2024 projects the population of China to keep declining and reach 1.27 billion in 2050 and merely 639 million in 2100. At that stage, the population of India shall be nearly two and half times that of China and the population of even Pakistan shall be nearly 80 percent of China. This drastic decline of the population of China is among the most consequential aspects of the demographic projections of WPP 2024.
Indonesia
After China, it is Indonesia that is projected to see it population peak and then begin declining. It has a population of 274 million now in 2020; it shall rise to 322 million at its peak in 2059 and decline to 297 million at the end of the century.
India
India, along with Pakistan and Bangladesh, has shown robust growth between 1950 and 2020. It is projected to keep growing past 2050 and reach its peak of 1,701 million three years after Indonesia, in 2062. Between then and the end of the century, the population of India is projected to decline by about 200 million to reach 1,509 million in 2100.
Bangladesh
Bangladesh is projected to keep growing for nearly two decades after the population of India reaches its peak. The population of the country is projected to peak only in 2079, at 224.7 million. After that it shall begin declining slowly to reach 209 million at the end of the century.
Pakistan
The population of Pakistan is projected to keep growing beyond the twenty-first century. In 1950, Pakistan was the smallest of the five most populous countries of Asia. But its growth has been phenomenal and faster than all other countries in this group. According to the estimates of WPP 2024, the population of Pakistan overtook that of Bangladesh in 1987, when the population of the former reached near 107 million and the latter lagged behind at 106 million. Pakistan is projected to overtake Indonesia soon, in 2037, when the population of Pakistan would be 308 million and that of Indonesia around 307 million.
In 2100, the population of Pakistan shall reach above 510 million, only about 20 percent behind that of China at that stage. If the trends seen in this century continue to hold beyond 2100, then it is likely that the population of Pakistan shall overtake that of China in the early decades of the twenty-second century. This, of course, is only speculation. It is more likely that China would take steps to arrest the sharp decline in population that it is witnessing now.
The largest Muslim country
With the rapid growth in population, Pakistan is projected to replace Indonesia as the most populous Muslim country of the world soon. As we have mentioned above, Pakistan shall have a higher population than Indonesia in 2037, with the former at 307.9 million and the latter at 306.9 million. The population of India at that point is projected to be 1,593 million. If the proportion of Muslims in India in 2037 happens to be anywhere above 19 percent, which is very likely, then it is India, not Pakistan, that would replace Indonesia as the country with the highest population of Muslims in the world. However, with Pakistan continuing to grow much more rapidly than both India and Indonesia, India shall hold that position only briefly.
Differential in the Growth of the Five Countries
Though all of the five most populous countries of Asia have grown significantly between 1950 and 2020, the pattern of their growth has been quite different from each other and is projected to diverge strongly in the course of the century. To form an appreciation of the differing growth, we have compiled, in Table 2, the number of times the population of Asia and its most populous countries has multiplied and is projected to multiply between 1950 and 2100.
| Table 2: Multiplication Factor of Population between 1950 and 2100 | |||||
Period/ | 1950-2020 | 2020-2050 | 2050-2100 | 1950-2100 | 2020-2100 | |
World | 3.18 | 1.23 | 1.06 | 4.12 | 1.30 | |
Asia | 3.45 | 1.13 | 0.88 | 3.41 | 0.99 | |
China | 2.64 | 0.89 | 0.50 | 1.18 | 0.45 | |
India | 4.07 | 1.20 | 0.90 | 4.40 | 1.08 | |
Pakistan | 6.56 | 1.59 | 1.38 | 14.38 | 2.19 | |
Bangladesh | 4.06 | 1.29 | 0.98 | 5.12 | 1.26 | |
Indonesia | 4.02 | 1.17 | 0.93 | 4.36 | 1.08 | |
Growth between 1950-2020
Between 1950 and 2020, the population of all of the five countries that we are discussing has multiplied several times. But the multiplication factors are vastly different.
The population of China has multiplied by only 2.64 times, which is slightly above that of Eastern Asia as a whole, but is far slower than the average of the world.
India, Bangladesh and Indonesia have all multiplied by a similar factor of slightly above 4. The factor is 4.07 for India, 4.06 for Bangladesh and 4.02 for Indonesia.
Pakistan, however, has grown much faster than the other countries in this group. Between 1950 and 2020, its population has multiplied by 6.56 times, which is higher than that of Western Asia, the Muslim-dominant Asian region that multiplied the fastest in this period. The growth of Pakistan has been even higher than the average of Africa, the fastest growing continent of the world, where the average multiplication factor is only 6.05. (See, Table 2 of our notes on Africaand Asia).
Growth between 2020 and 2050
Between 2020 and 2050, the growth of Asia and of its five most populous countries is expected to slow down considerably. The population of China, in this period, shall actually decline by a factor of 0.89. India and Indonesia shall multiply by a factor of around 1.2, and Bangladesh by a slightly higher factor of around 1.3. Pakistan shall continue to grow robustly with its population multiplying another 1.6 times in these three decades.
Growth between 2050 and 2100
Between 2050 and the end of the century, population of all countries except Pakistan shall experience a decline. The decline is projected to be the most precipitous for China, with its population getting exactly halved in these five decades. After China, the decline shall be the largest for India. Its population shall shrink by about 10 percent. The population of Indonesia shall experience somewhat slower decline with its population shrinking by about 7 percent. The population of Bangladesh shall remain nearly unchanged from its value in 2050, shrinking by only about 2 percent. The population of Pakistan, however, shall continue to grow throughout this period and shall multiply by a factor of 1.38.
Growth between 1950-2100
Looking at the whole period from 1950 to the end of the current century, we find that in this period of considerable growth across the whole world, at the end of which the population of the world is projected to multiply by more than four times and that of Asia by nearly three and a half times, the population of China is expected to grow marginally, by only about 18 percent. That country would have completed the whole cycle of growth and decline within this period.
The populations of both India and Indonesia in this period are projected to multiply 4.4 times, which is more than the average of the world.
The population of Bangladesh is likely to do better than India and Indonesia, multiplying by more than 5 times between 1950 and the end of the century.
The growth of Pakistan, however, shall be explosive. Between 1950 and 2100, the population of Pakistan is projected to multiply by 14.4 times. This is three and half times the factor by which the population of the world has multiplied and more than three times the number by which the population of India is projected to multiply in this period. The growth of Pakistan is comparable to that of the African continent, which is projected to grow by nearly 17 times. The growth is higher than the pre-dominantly Muslim regions of Western Asia and Central Asia, which are expected to multiply by around 11 and 9 times, respectively, in this period.
The steep decline of China and the explosive growth of Pakistan shall have very significant consequences for India, which we discuss later in this article.
Changes in the share and density of different countries of Asia
The great differential in the growth of the five countries that we have discussed above has drastically altered their relative share in the population of Asia. In Table 3, we have calculated the shares of these countries at several points between 1950 and 2100. In the Table, we also show the area and changing density of population of the five countries.
Table 3: Share of the five largest countries in the population of Asia, 1950-2100 | ||||||||
Share in the | 1950 | 2020 | 2050 | 2100 | Area | Density | Density | Density |
Asia | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 31,033 | 153.3 | 134.3 | 44.5 |
China | 39.79 | 30.51 | 23.98 | 13.81 | 9,600 | 147.8 | 74.6 | 55.9 |
India | 25.28 | 29.88 | 31.79 | 32.64 | 3,287 | 488.0 | 439.0 | 119.8 |
Pakistan | 2.62 | 4.98 | 7.00 | 11.04 | 796 | 326.0 | 450.3 | 49.7 |
Bangladesh | 3.01 | 3.55 | 4.06 | 4.52 | 148 | 1,333.4 | 1301.9 | 328.6 |
Indonesia | 5.02 | 5.86 | 6.07 | 6.42 | 1,911 | 148.4 | 137.4 | 36.9 |
Note: Area is in million km2 and density in persons/km2. This data is taken from the UN data for 2024. [2] Density in 2100 is calculated by multiplying the density of 2024 with the projected multiplication of population between 2020 and 2100 in Table 2 above. Density in 1950 is calculated by dividing the density of 2024 with the multiplication factor for 1950-2020 in Table 2. Total surface area in the table is about 90 mn km2 more than the sum of the regions. The UN sheet we are using does not separately give the area of Southern Asia and Central Asia. We have calculated it by adding the area of individual countries. | ||||||||
Decline of China, Rise of the Indian region
At the beginning of the modern period of high demographic growth across the world, in 1950, China formed about 40 percent of the population of Asia. The Indian region, comprising the undivided India, including India, Pakistan and Bangladesh of today, formed about 31 percent. Now, in 2020, the share of China is down to 30.5 percent and that of the Indian region is 38.4 percent, nearly inverting the relative position of the two largest countries of Asia in 1950. In 2100, at the end of this period, the relative position is projected to change beyond recognition.
China, with an area of 9,600 million km2, forming nearly one-third of the land-area of Asia, shall have a share of less than 14 percent in the population of the continent. The Indian region, with an area of 4,231 million km2, comprising less than half that of China, shall have a share of nearly half, 48.2 percent to be exact, in the population of Asia.
Historically, the population of China has been more than that of undivided India. For 1800, the population of China is estimated to be 330 million and of undivided India around 200 million. In 1950, the population of China was 539 million and of undivided India around 400 million.
The population of undivided India exceeding that of China at some epoch is understandable. The size of population depends not on the geographical area but on arable area, the area on which crops can be grown to feed the population. Arable area of China is around 135 million hectares compared to 209 million hectares of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh together. But, this difference in the arable area cannot explain the population of China becoming less than one third of the undivided India, as is projected for 2100. If the projections indeed turn into reality, we shall be in an entirely new demographic territory. That novel situation is likely to have extreme political and economic consequences for various countries in this region.
Rise of Pakistan in the Indian region
The second most significant aspect of the projections of WWP 2024 for the five countries that we are considering here is the great rise in the share of Pakistan. In 1950, Pakistan had a share of just 2.6 percent in the population of Asia; in 2020, its share has almost doubled to reach around 5 percent. In the course of the current century, it is projected to more than double again to reach 11 percent. The share of Bangladesh in this period shall grow from 3 percent in 1950 to 4.5 percent in 2100 and that of India from 25.3 to 32.6 percent.
This extraordinary rise in the population of Pakistan shall change the relative shares of the three countries into which India has been split. In Table 3a, we have compiled the share of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh in the population of undivided pre-Partition India or what we have been referring to as the Indian region.
Table 3a: Share of countries in undivided India | ||||
| 1950 | 2020 | 2050 | 2100 |
Undivided | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
India | 81.78 | 77.80 | 74.19 | 67.71 |
Pakistan | 8.47 | 12.97 | 16.34 | 22.91 |
Bangladesh | 9.74 | 9.23 | 9.47 | 9.38 |
As seen in the Table, soon after Partition, in 1950, the share of India in the population of undivided India was about 82 percent. The entity that was constituted as Pakistan at that time was split further into Pakistan and Bangladesh in 1971. In 1950, the share of what now constitutes Pakistan in the population of undivided India was 8.5 percent and that of Bangladesh was 9.7 percent. As we have seen, the population of Pakistan overtook that of Bangladesh in 1987. By 2020, the share of Pakistan has reached 13 percent while that of Bangladesh has declined slightly from 9.7 to 9.2 percent. By the end of the century, the share of Pakistan in the population of undivided India is projected to rise to 22.9 percent, while that of Bangladesh is likely to be around 9.4 percent.
With this rise in the share of Pakistan, the share of India in the undivided pre-Partition India is projected to decline from nearly 82 percent in 1950 to 68 percent in 2100. India, as constituted after the Partition, accommodated more than four-fifths of the population of undivided India in 1950, it shall host only two-thirds in 2100.
This decline of 14 percentage points in the share of India in the undivided pre-Partition India and the corresponding rise in the combined share of pre-dominantly Muslim Pakistan and Bangladesh has significantly altered the religious composition of the Indian region. This change in the relative population-shares of the three entities makes it almost certain that by the end of the century, or even before that, adherents of Indian religions shall become a minority in the Indian region comprising the three countries that constituted undivided India. We shall describe this eventuality in further detail at the end of this note.
Indonesia
As seen in Table 3, the share of Indonesia—the largest Muslim country by population today— in the population of Asia, is projected to rise from 5 percent in 1950 to 6.4 percent in 2100.
Changes in the density of population
As seen in Table 3, the density of population in China was only 56 persons per square kilometre in 1950. It has risen to 148 in 2024 and is projected to decline again to less than 75 in 2100.
India had a higher density of 120 persons per km2 in 1950. It has risen to 488 in 2024 and is projected to decline slightly to 439 in 2100.
Density of population in Pakistan was less than 50 in 1950, which formed less than half of the density of 114 persons per km2 of undivided India at that time. This much lower density of population in Pakistan was not unexpected. Only about a fifth of the geographical area of Pakistan, lying mostly in the Indus plains, is capable of intensive cultivation. There is little agriculture possible in the western Baloch Plateau that forms nearly half of the geographical area of Pakistan, or in its Northern Highlands, or in the Southern Desert. The last forms part of the great Thar Desert of India.
Notwithstanding the rugged uninhabitable geography of much of Pakistan, its density of population has risen to 326 in 2024 from just 56 in 1950. It is projected to rise to 450 in 2100. At that point, Pakistan shall be more densely inhabited than even India.
Bangladesh had a population-density of 329 in 1950, which was nearly thrice the average of undivided India at that time. It has risen to 1,333 now in 2024 and is projected to remain above 1,300 persons per km2 even in 2100. This extremely high density of population is possible because almost all of Bangladesh comprises rich alluvial plains of the Ganga-Brahmaputra Delta. The Ganga plains are known to be capable of supporting very dense populations. The state of Bihar in India, which also comprises of mostly the Ganga plains, also has a comparable population-density of around 1,100 persons per km2.
Fertility and Mortality Indicators
In Table 4 and 5, we have compiled fertility and mortality indicators for the five most populous countries of Asia. For comparison, we have also included the numbers for Asia and the World.
Table 4: Fertility indicators of Asia and its regions, 1950-2100 | ||||||||
World/ | TFR | NRR | ||||||
Continent | 1950 | 2020 | 2050 | 2100 | 1950 | 2020 | 2050 | 2100 |
World | 4.85 | 2.32 | 2.10 | 1.84 | 1.63 | 1.06 | 0.99 | 0.88 |
Asia | 5.69 | 1.97 | 1.82 | 1.72 | 1.78 | 0.91 | 0.87 | 0.83 |
China | 5.81 | 1.24 | 1.18 | 1.35 | 1.92 | 0.58 | 0.57 | 0.65 |
India | 5.73 | 2.05 | 1.77 | 1.69 | 1.68 | 0.94 | 0.84 | 0.82 |
Pakistan | 6.80 | 3.77 | 2.58 | 1.93 | 1.65 | 1.69 | 1.21 | 0.93 |
Bangladesh | 6.37 | 2.18 | 1.81 | 1.72 | 1.72 | 1.02 | 0.87 | 0.84 |
Indonesia | 5.11 | 2.19 | 1.85 | 1.73 | 1.52 | 1.02 | 0.88 | 0.83 |
Table 5: Mortality Indicators of Asia and its regions, 1950-2100 | ||||||||
World/ | Crude Death Rate per 1,000 | Life Expectancy at Birth | ||||||
Continent | 1950 | 2020 | 2050 | 2100 | 1950 | 2020 | 2050 | 2100 |
World | 19.4 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 12.1 | 46.4 | 71.9 | 77.0 | 81.7 |
Asia | 22.8 | 7.2 | 9.9 | 13.6 | 42.0 | 73.6 | 79.3 | 85.1 |
China | 23.1 | 7.3 | 13.9 | 21.6 | 43.8 | 78.0 | 83.4 | 89.8 |
India | 22.7 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 13.6 | 41.2 | 70.2 | 77.5 | 85.3 |
Pakistan | 27.8 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 10.1 | 34.2 | 65.7 | 71.3 | 78.2 |
Bangladesh | 27.6 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 12.5 | 37.4 | 71.4 | 80.9 | 88.3 |
Indonesia | 20.9 | 7.4 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 40.2 | 68.8 | 74.9 | 81.9 |
In 1950, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of all five of these countries was above 5 and the crude death rate (CDR) was above 20 per thousand. It may be noted that India at that stage had a slightly lower TFR and also a lower CDR than China. Pakistan and Bangladesh both had much higher TFR and CDR than the other three countries.
Now, in 2020, the TFR of China has fallen far below the replacement rate of 2.1. If the data is to be believed, China reached that milestone as early as in 1991, when the other countries were still far above the replacement rate. The TFR of India fell below the replacement rate 30 years later, in 2021. Bangladesh and Indonesia are projected to reach that mark in 2026. The TFR of Pakistan, however, shall remain considerably above the replacement rate even in 2050 and is expected to come below the replacement level only in 2080.
In 2100, TFR of Pakistan shall still be 1.93, only slightly below the replacement rate. Its TFR shall be the highest of all. And, its CDR at that stage is projected to be lowest at 10.1 deaths per thousand, thus ensuring continued natural growth of the population.
It is instructive to look at the CDR of Bangladesh. The CDR there has fallen to 6.1 in 2020, which is the lowest of the five countries, while its TFR has declined to a level that is comparable to India and Indonesia. The CDR of Bangladesh is projected to remain below others even in 2050. This indicates comparatively higher vitality, which is reflected in its higher Life Expectancy at Birth compared to the other countries except China. In 2100, Bangladesh is projected to have Life Expectancy of 88.3 years, below only that of China at 89.8 years.
CDR for China in 2020 is comparable to others at somewhat above 7, except Pakistan, where it is nearer 6. For China, the CDR is projected to rise to nearly 14 deaths per thousand in 2050 and to a rather level of 22 in 2100. This is because of the aging of population with there being few people in the younger cohorts. Life-Expectancy in China in 2020 at 78.0 years is considerably above the average of the world. In 2100, it is projected to rise to 89.8 years, which shall be 8 years above the average of the world then.
Economic Indicators
In Table 6, we have compiled the GDP figures for the five countries of Asia that we are considering in this note. The data is for 2022, when some economic normalcy had been restored following the Covid epidemic. The data is taken from the UN statistical dataset. [3]
Table 6: Economic Indicators of | |||
Region | GDP | GDP Per Capita | Rate of Growth |
World | 9,01,26,325 | 12,647 | 3.1 |
Asia | 3,53,57,380 | 8,049 | 3.6 |
China | 1,63,25,036 | 12,598 | 3.0 |
India | 30,22,292 | 2,445 | 7.2 |
Pakistan | 4,02,312 | 1,386 | 6.2 |
Bangladesh | 3,64,957 | 2,528 | 7.1 |
Indonesia | 11,22,285 | 4,788 | 5.3 |
Numbers are for 2022. GDP in current prices (million US Dollars). GDP per Capita in US Dollars. GDP real rate of growth in percent. | |||
As seen in the Table, the GDP of China is 12,598 US Dollars per Capita, which is comparable to the average of the world at 12,647, though it is far lower than that of Europe at around 32 thousand and of the USA at 76 thousand US Dollars.
Of the other hand, Pakistan, with the highest fertility and the highest projected rate of growth of population, has the lowest GDP per Capita. At 1,386 US Dollars in 2022, it is nearly half of India and Bangladesh and less than 30 percent that of Indonesia.
The declining fertility of China and the continuing high fertility of Pakistan, therefore, may be related to the high economic affluence of the former and poverty of the latter. But, of course, there are many other factors driving such decline and growth of population.
Religious composition of the five countries
Buddhism and Eastern Religions like Taoism are the main religions of China, though about half of the population there follows no religion. We have noted in our earlier articles the relative decline of Buddhism in the World and especially in India. But the projected decline in the population of China is so precipitous that it seems difficult to relate it to religion or economic affluence alone. The decline seems to be rooted in larger social and civilisational phenomena.
Of the remaining four countries, three, Indonesia, Pakistan and Bangladesh are predominantly Islamic. Muslims form about 87 percent of the population of Indonesia, 91 percent that of Bangladesh and 97 percent of Pakistan. India has the third largest Muslim population in the world after Indonesia and Pakistan, but here they form a minority of around 15 percent. A large majority of the people of India are adherents of Religions of Indian origin, namely, Hinduism, Sikhism, Jainism, Buddhism and several persuasions and faiths of mainly the tribal people.
As we have seen, Pakistan, the country with the highest share of Muslims in its population, has indeed grown much faster than others. But, Bangladesh and Indonesia, which are also predominantly Muslim, have shown a pattern of growth that is more or less the same as that of India, which has a much smaller proportion of Muslims.
Religion may be one of the determinants of population growth. But it does not seem to be the decisive factor. Civilisational, historical, geographical and social differences all seem to play a role in the demographic growth of different nations.
Changing Religious Profile of the Indian region
Though religion may not have been the main determinant of demographic growth of different countries of Asia, yet the projected pattern of growth in the Indian region is likely to drastically alter the religious composition of this region. Undivided India had a Muslim presence of about 20 percent in 1901. Their share had grown to about 30 percent in 2001. The great differential in the projected growth of Pakistan and India as seen in Table 3a is likely to raise the share of Muslims in the population of the region to nearly 50 percent by the end of the century thus reducing the adherents of Indian religions to a minority in the Indian region.
We had first raised the possibility of the adherents of Indian Religions becoming a minority in India sometime in the second half of the twenty-first century in our book on the Religious Demography of India, referred to as RDI 2003 below, where we had compiled and analysed the population of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh from 1891 to 1991. [4] We had come to that conclusion by making a simple-minded statistical projection of the data of the eleven censuses that we had analysed into the future. The conclusion, however, seemed justified because of the following factors:
1. Higher Growth of Pakistan compared to India: The population of area that later came to form Pakistan has been growing considerably faster than that of the area that remained in India, since at least 1850. The area that formed Bangladesh also has been growing faster than India, but only since 1900 and the difference in growth is much smaller than between Pakistan and India. (See, Table 1.7 of RDI 2003). The projections of WPP 2024 suggest that this trend of Pakistan growing much faster than India, and Bangladesh also outpacing the growth of India though with a smaller margin, is likely to continue throughout the twenty-first century.
2. Rise in the share of Muslims in India and Bangladesh: In the period prior to Independence, the share of Muslims had been rising rapidly in the area that later formed Bangladesh and also in the area that comprised India after Partition. (Table 2.5 and 2.6 of RDI 2003). This trend of the rising share of Muslims in the population of India and Bangladesh continued to persist and became much stronger after Partition and Independence. (Table 2.7a and 2.9a of RDI 2003).
Projected Share of Muslims in India and Bangladesh
We have calculated, in Table 3a, the projected impact of the first factor on the relative share of the population of India in the Indian region. To give an estimate of how the second factor, the rising share of Muslims in India and Bangladesh, is likely to evolve, we compile, in Table 7, the rising share of Muslims in the population of India and Bangladesh since 1951. The data is based on RDI 2003 and the later edition of 2025.
Table 7: Share of Muslims in India | ||
Census Year | % Share of Muslims | |
India | Bangladesh | |
1951 | 10.45 | 76.85 |
1961 | 10.69 | 80.43 |
1971 | 11.20 | 85.40 |
1981 | 11.75 | 86.65 |
1991 | 12.61 | 88.30 |
2001 | 13.43 | 89.69 |
2011 | 14.23 | 90.39 |
Bangladesh
As can be seen in Table 7, the share of Muslims in Bangladesh has been growing since 1951 and has risen by 14 percentage points in the six decades up to 2011. It has further increased by about one percentage point in 2021. From this trend and from the recent rise of Islamic fundamentalism in that country, it can be surmised that the presence of non-Muslims in Bangladesh shall decline to negligible levels in the course of the remaining decades of this century. In Pakistan, this happened in one go at the time of Partition; in Bangladesh, the same level of decline in the non-Muslim population is being achieved slowly over the decades. It seems reasonable to assume that Muslims in Pakistan and Bangladesh shall form above 96 percent of the population at the end of the century.
India
As seen in Table 7, share of Muslims in India has been rising in the post-Partition period also; the volume of increase has become distinctly larger after 1981. In each of the three decades between 1981 and 2011, the share of Muslims in the population of India has increased by at least 0.8 percentage points. Indian population has now entered a phase of low growth and is likely to begin declining in the 2060s. In this phase of low or declining growth, the differences between the relative growth of Muslims and others are likely to become more pronounced. We have described this phenomenon in a recent note on Kerala, where the growth of population has been low for several decades. In this situation, it is reasonable to assume that the share of Muslims in India shall keep rising at least at the current rate of about 0.8 percentage point per decade. Their share in the population of India at the end of the century then is likely to be at least between 20 and 25 percent.
Projected share of Muslims in Undivided India
Table 8: Share of Muslims in Undivided India in 2100 | |||
Country/Region | Total | Muslim | %Muslims |
Scenario 1: Muslims form 20 percent of India | |||
India | 1,509,107 | 301,821 | 20 |
Pakistan | 510,572 | 490,149 | 96 |
Bangladesh | 209,120 | 200,755 | 96 |
Undivided India | 2,228,799 | 992,726 | 45 |
Scenario 2: Muslims form 25 percent of India | |||
India | 15,09,107 | 377,277 | 25 |
Pakistan | 5,10,572 | 490,149 | 96 |
Bangladesh | 2,09,120 | 200,755 | 96 |
Undivided India | 22,28,799 | 1,068,181 | 48 |
In Table 8, we apply these estimated shares of Muslims to the projected population India, Pakistan and Bangladesh in 2100. We find that in case the Muslims form 20 percent of the population of India at that stage, then the share of Muslims in the population of Undivided India shall be 45 percent and if the proportion of Muslims in India happens to be 25 percent, then their proportion in undivided India shall be 48 percent.
The share of Christians in the population of India
It is generally agreed that though the share of Christians as counted in the Census of India is only about 2.5 percent, their actual numbers are much higher and certainly above 5 percent. The lower Census figure is attributed to the compulsion of converted Christians to hide their allegiance from secular authorities, mainly to keep availing the special privileges provided to the Scheduled Castes among the adherents of Indian Religions. By 2100, this compulsion of converted Christians to hide their allegiance is likely to loosen. In that case, the Census may begin to capture the impact of the ongoing intense proselytization efforts in Punjab, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and many other parts of India. Similar efforts at proselytization are continuing in Pakistan and Bangladesh also. Therefore, it can be reasonably assumed that in 2100, Christians shall form at least 5 percent of the population of the Indian region.
Indian Religionists in Indian Region
We have seen that Muslims shall form at least between 45 to 48 percent of the population of undivided India in 2001 and Christians shall form at least 5 percent. The adherents of Indian Religions then shall certainly become a minority in the Indian region. This is the inexorable consequence of the rapid rise in the share of Pakistan in the population of the Indian region on the one hand, and the steady rise in the share of Muslims in India and Bangladesh, on the other.
As we have seen, the major factor driving the Indian Religions towards this denouement is the explosive growth of Pakistan between 1950 and 2100. This factor is unlikely to change and therefore the denouement seems unavoidable.
What we had presented as a tentative statistical conjecture in RDI 2003 has become a certainty in the light of the projections of WPP 2024.
Conclusions
1. The five most populous countries of Asia are following quite distinct growth-paths in the modern period of 1950 to 2100. Between 1950 and 2020, all five have registered considerable but varying growth. China has grown by only 2.6 times, while India, Bangladesh and Indonesia have multiplied by around 4 times, and Pakistan has multiplied by a much higher 6.5 times.
2. Their growth is projected to diverge more sharply in the remaining years of the twenty-first century. China has already reached its peak in 2021. Population of Indonesia shall peak in 2059. India shall reach its peak soon afterwards in 2062. Bangladesh shall continue growing for another nearly two decades reaching its peak only in 2079. And, Pakistan is projected to keep growing beyond this century.
3. The projected differences in growth are stark. By 2100, the population of China is likely to decline to less than half of its number in 2020. On the other hand, the population of Pakistan shall more than double from its present value. The population of Bangladesh shall expand by about a quarter. That of Indonesia by about 10 percent. India shall add just about a hundred million to its current population of 1.4 billion.
4. With this starkly different growth, the shares of the five countries in the population of Asia shall undergo a drastic change. In 1950, China formed nearly 40 percent of the population of Asia, while India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, which together form the Indian region, had a share of 31 percent. In 2020, the ratios are reversed. China forms 30.5 percent of Asia, while the share of the India region has risen to 38.4 percent. In 2100, China’s share shall be somewhat less than 14 percent and that of the Indian region shall form nearly half of Asia.
5. Within the Indian region, the share of Pakistan has risen explosively. In 1950, the population of Pakistan was only about 2.6 percent that of Asia. That share has risen to nearly 5 percent in 2020 and is projected to rise to 11 percent in 2100.
6. Because of the extraordinary growth of Pakistan, and relatively faster growth of Bangladesh, the share of India in the population of the Indian region has declined from about 82 percent in 1950 to 78 percent now in 2020 and is projected to decline to about 68 percent in 2100.
7. This decline in the share of the population of India combined with the rising share of Muslims in both India and Bangladesh are leading to a sharp decline in the share of Indian Religions in this region. The decline is such that the adherents of Religions of Indian origin are almost certain to become a minority in the Indian region by 2100.
8. We had first raised this possibility in 2003 on the basis of our analysis of the religious-demographic data of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh from 1891 to 1991. The projections of WPP 2024 make that simplistic statistical calculation of ours into an inexorab
[1] World Population Prospects 2024, Compact Estimates and Medium Projection Table, available at https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/EXCEL_FILES/1_General/WPP2024_GEN_F01_DEMOGRAPHIC_INDICATORS_COMPACT.xlsx
[2] https://data.un.org/_Docs/SYB/CSV/SYB67_1_202411_Population,%20Surface%20Area%20and%20Density.csv
[3] https://data.un.org/_Docs/SYB/CSV/SYB67_230_202411_GDP%20and%20GDP%20Per%20Capita.csv
[4] Joshi, Srinivas and Bajaj, Religious Demography of India, Centre for Policy Studies, Chennai, 2003. A revised edition taking into account of the data of Census 2001 was published in 2005, when an illustrated summary of the most significant aspects of the data and the analysis were also published. Details of these publications may be seen at: https://cpsindia.org/publication/religious-demography-of-india/.
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