A pocket of intense Muslim presence and growth in Uttar Pradesh
After discussing the share and growth of Muslims in
Jammu and Kashmir, in Malerkotla of Punjab and in Mewat of Haryana, we deviated
from the proper sequence to discuss the extraordinarily rise in their share in
Assam, West Bengal and Kerala. In the process, we left out the large and
densely populated pocket of Muslim dominance in West UP. This pocket comprises eight
districts in the northwest part of UP and the adjoining district of Hardwar in
Uttarakhand; it accommodates 30 percent of the Muslims of UP and nearly half of
the Muslims of Uttarakhand. Total number of Muslims in this pocket is 1.23
crore, which is more than the number of Muslims in Assam and is comparable to
Maharashtra.
Muslims now form 41 percent of the population in this
pocket; this is nearly 2 percentage points above their share of about 39.2
percent in 2001. Longer time-series data is available for a slightly larger
area that includes at least one more adjoining district; the share of Muslims
in this area has risen by more than 10 percentage points since Independence and
Partition. They formed less than 30 percent of the population in 1951. Of the
accretion of 10 percentage points in the share of Muslims since 1951, more that
nine have been added in the four decades after 1971. It puts this pocket among the
regions of sharpest growth in the share of Muslims in India. Incidentally, 1971
seems to mark a turning point in Muslim growth in many parts of India.
The West UP pocket of high Muslim presence
Number and Share of Muslims in West UP Pocket of
High Mulism Presence and Growth
|
||||||
2001
|
2011
|
2001
|
2011
|
|||
Total
|
Muslims
|
Total
|
Muslims
|
%M
|
%M
|
|
Uttar Pradesh
|
16,61,97,921
|
3,07,40,158
|
19,98,12,341
|
3,84,83,967
|
18.50
|
19.26
|
Saharanpur
|
28,96,863
|
11,32,919
|
34,66,382
|
14,54,052
|
39.11
|
41.95
|
Muzaffarnagar
|
35,43,362
|
13,49,629
|
41,43,512
|
17,11,453
|
38.09
|
41.30
|
Bijnor
|
31,31,619
|
13,06,329
|
36,82,713
|
15,85,210
|
41.71
|
43.04
|
Moradabad
|
38,10,983
|
17,35,381
|
47,72,006
|
22,48,392
|
45.54
|
47.12
|
Rampur
|
19,23,739
|
9,45,277
|
23,35,819
|
11,81,337
|
49.14
|
50.57
|
Jyotiba
Phule Nagar
|
14,99,068
|
5,90,308
|
18,40,221
|
7,50,368
|
39.38
|
40.78
|
Meerut
|
29,97,361
|
9,75,715
|
34,43,689
|
11,85,643
|
32.55
|
34.43
|
Bareilly
|
36,18,589
|
12,26,386
|
44,48,359
|
15,36,534
|
33.89
|
34.54
|
West UP Pocket
|
2,34,21,584
|
92,61,944
|
2,81,32,701
|
1,16,52,989
|
39.54
|
41.42
|
Hardwar
(Uttarakhand)
|
14,47,187
|
4,78,274
|
18,90,422
|
6,48,119
|
33.05
|
34.28
|
Entire Pocket
|
2,48,68,771
|
97,40,218
|
3,00,23,123
|
1,23,01,108
|
39.17
|
40.97
|
UP accommodates 22 percent of all Muslims in India
Of
17.22 crore Muslims counted in India in 2011, as many as 3.85 crore, forming 22
percent of all Muslims, are in Uttar Pradesh. But, Uttar Pradesh, often
abbreviated as UP, is very large and densely populated; it accommodates 16.5
percent of the total population of India. The share of Muslims in UP is
certainly higher than in India as a whole; they form 19.26 percent of the
population of the State and only 14.23 percent of India. Within UP, Muslims are
particularly concentrated in a few districts, while their presence in many other
districts, especially in the southwest is considerably below the average of the
State.
They are particularly concentrated in eight districts
of the northwest
As
seen in Map XXI-I below of the share of Muslims in the districts, the most
intense of the pockets of high Muslim presence in UP comprises eight contiguous
districts of Saharnpur, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Moradabad, Rampur, Jyotiba Phule
Nagar, Meerut and Bareilly. These districts lie in the northwest of the State
and are in the near vicinity of Delhi. Hardwar, which was carved out of
Saharanpur after 1981, forms an integral part of this belt and has a similarly
high and growing presence of Muslims.
This pocket accommodates 30 percent of the Muslims in
UP
These
eight districts accommodate 30 percent of the Muslims and only 14 percent of
the total population of the State. The total number of Muslims in the UP part
of this pocket adds up to 1.17 crore. The share of Muslims in each of these
eight districts is near or more than 35 percent; in six of these, Muslims form
more than 40 percent of the population and they form a majority in Rampur.
Their share in the population of these eight districts together works out to be
41.4 percent. Hardwar accommodates another 6.5 lakh Muslims, which forms 46
percent of all Muslims in Uttarakhand.
Muslims in this pocket have added 2 percentage points
in the last decade
As
seen in the Table above, share of Muslims in the UP part of this pocket has risen
by 2 percentage points in the last decade, from 39.5 percent in 2001 to 41.4
percent in 2011. Their share has increased by more than one percentage point in
each of the eight districts in this pocket and also in Hardwar. The quantum of
increase has been relatively higher in Saharanpur and Muzaffarnagar districts.
Later, we shall see that Muslims in this belt have been experiencing a high
level of accretion to their share for several decades now.
Longer term growth in the
share of Muslims in the West UP Pocket
Growth in the share of Muslims in Percent in the
West UP Pocket, 1941-2011
|
||||||||
1941
|
1951
|
1961
|
1971
|
1981
|
1991
|
2001
|
2011
|
|
Saharanpur
(incl. Hardwar)
|
33.59
|
30.40
|
31.08
|
31.11
|
31.57
|
34.14
|
37.09
|
39.24
|
Muzaffarnagar
|
29.10
|
27.34
|
27.95
|
28.83
|
28.74
|
34.52
|
38.09
|
41.30
|
Bijnor
|
37.04
|
36.50
|
36.54
|
36.66
|
39.45
|
40.35
|
41.71
|
43.04
|
Moradabad
(incl. Jyotiba Phule Nagar)
|
38.51
|
37.06
|
37.25
|
38.15
|
38.06
|
42.70
|
43.80
|
45.35
|
Rampur
|
49.36
|
48.99
|
45.02
|
45.76
|
47.22
|
47.95
|
49.14
|
50.57
|
Meerut
(incl. Baghpat)
|
23.43
|
20.03
|
20.97
|
22.14
|
25.30
|
27.49
|
30.36
|
32.66
|
Bareilly
|
28.42
|
27.14
|
29.88
|
29.21
|
27.15
|
32.69
|
33.89
|
34.54
|
Total for the West UP
Pocket
|
32.10
|
29.93
|
30.61
|
31.17
|
32.82
|
36.34
|
38.52
|
40.43
|
Time-series data is difficult to estimate because of
the reorganisation of districts
It is
difficult to obtain long-term data for the nine current districts that form the
northwest pocket of very high Muslims presence. Many of the districts in the
region, and even several sub-districts, have been reorganised several times in
the recent past. The area of Saharanpur (including Hardwar), Muzaffarnagar,
Bijnor and Moradabad (including Jyotiba Phule Nagar) remains more or less
unchanged, though while carving out the new districts of Jyotiba Phule Nagar
and Hardwar, some villages have been taken from Moradabad and Bijnor and added
to Saharanpur. Rampur and Bareilly districts have remained largely unchanged.
Meerut is the most difficult to deal with. Ghaziabad was carved out of Meerut
after 1971 and Baghpat was separated from Meerut after 1991. We can get the
time-series data from 1971 to 2011 for Meerut plus Baghpat. For the period prior
to that we shall have to include Ghaziabad; but that district has been
reorganised while creating Gautam Buddha Nagar by taking parts of Ghaziabad and
Bulandshahr. This means that we must add Meerut, Baghpat, Ghaziabad,
Bulandshahr and Gautam Buddha Nagar in order to get long time-series data. This
would make the exercise meaningless. Therefore, we have added only Meerut and
Baghpat. This makes the time-series accurate for 1971-2011. For the earlier
period, we make the not too unreasonable assumption that the share of Muslims
in undivided Meerut, which included Ghaziabad, was similar to their share in
the area that now constitutes Meerut and Baghpat.
Share of Muslims in this pocket has risen from 30
percent in 1951 to 40 percent now
The
growth of Muslims in this pocket has been extra-ordinarily rapid. They had a
share of less than 30 percent in 1951 after Partition; their share now is 40.4
percent . The change has not been similar in different districts in this pocket.
Saharanpur (including Hardwar) has ben experiencing a rise of more than 2
percentage points in the share of Muslim every decade after 1981. Muzaffarnagar
experienced a spurt of nearly 6 percentage points during 1981-91, and there has
been an accretion of nearly 7 percentage points in the two decades after that. Bijnor
had a spurt of nearly 3 percentage points during 1971-81, but the rise since
then has been more modest. Moradabad experienced a spurt of more than 4.5
percentage points in the share of Muslims during 1981-91, and there has been an
accretion of another about 3 percentage points after that. Rise in the share of
Muslims has been somewhat modest in Rampur, but the district experienced a
spurt of about 2 percentage points in 1971-81 and there has been considerable
accretion in the Muslim share during the last two decades. In Meerut, the
Muslim share has been rising consistently by more than 2 percentage points
every decade since 1971. In Bareilly the rise in Muslim share has been
relatively modest and rather uneven.
The rise has been mainly after 1971
As is
clear from the table and analysis above, there has been a distinct rise in the
share of Muslims after 1971. In the two decades between 1951 and 1971, their
share in this pocket had risen by just about 1.2 percentage points, from 29.93
to 31.17 percent. In the four decades since 1971, it has increased by more than
9 percentage points. There was an increase of as much as 3.5 percentage points
in the single decade of 1981-91; and, there has been an accretion of 2
percentage points in each of the two decades since then. It is remarkable that
there was not much change in the Muslim presence in this pocket at Partition. Between
1941 and 1951, their share declined by only 2 percentage points. That decline
was made up already by 1981; the increase after that has been extraordinary.
The growth of
Muslims was subdued
in the pre-Partition period
in the pre-Partition period
Share
of Muslims in the pre-Partition Period
|
||||
1911
|
1921
|
1931
|
1941
|
|
Saharanpur
|
33.36
|
32.90
|
33.83
|
33.59
|
Muzaffarnagar
|
28.68
|
28.50
|
28.73
|
29.10
|
Bijnor
|
34.79
|
35.86
|
37.59
|
37.04
|
Moradabad
|
46.05
|
47.14
|
46.71
|
49.36
|
Rampur
|
28.68
|
28.50
|
28.73
|
29.10
|
Meerut
|
22.70
|
22.86
|
23.25
|
23.43
|
Bareilly
|
25.23
|
25.92
|
27.42
|
28.42
|
Total
|
30.82
|
30.97
|
31.77
|
32.10
|
As we
have seen, the share of Muslims in this pocket has risen by more than 10
percentage points since Partition, and much of this accretion has occurred
after 1971. Rise in the share of Muslims in some of the individual districts has
been even more remarkable; Muzaffarnagar has experienced an accretion of 14 and
Meerut of 13 percentage points since 1951. But, rise in the share of Muslims in
this region, as well as in the individual districts, was much more modest in
the pre-Partition period. In this whole pocket, the share of Muslims rose from
30.8 percent in 1911 to 32.1 percent in 1941. Much of this rise could also be
attributed to the unusual rise in Moradabad in 1931-41 and to a lesser extent
in Bijnor during 1921-31 and Bareilly during 1921-41.
Share of Muslims in the sub-districts
In Map
XXI-II below, we have shown the share of Muslims in the sub-districts of the pocket
of high Muslim presence in northwest UP that we have been discussing above;
some of the districts and sub-districts in the immediate vicinity of this
region have also been added for the sake of completeness and comparison.
Muslim dominance is more marked in the sub-districts
Muslim
Share % |
No of
Tahsils |
>50
|
10
|
40-50
|
12
|
30-40
|
14
|
20-30
|
10
|
As
seen in the Map, Muslim dominance seems much more marked at the level of the
sub-districts. There are a total of 46 sub-districts in the eight districts of
northwest UP and Hardwar of Uttarakhand that comprise this pocket. Muslim
presence in 10 of these sub-districts is above 50 percent; in three of these,
Muslims form more than 60 percent of the population. These 10 Muslim-majority
sub-districts are spread over seven districts: Rampur, Moradabad, Jyotiba Phule
Nagar, Bijnor, Muzaffarnagar and Saharanpur. In another 12 of the 46
sub-districts in the region, Muslim presence is between 40 and 50 percent, and
it is between 30 and 40 percent in 14. The share of Muslims in the remaining 10
sub-districts of this region is between 20 and 30 percent.
Muslim presence is high in some of the neighbouring
sub-districts
The
share of Muslims is above 30 percent in another 5 sub-districts in the vicinity
of this pocket. These five include Hapur and Garhmukteshwar of Ghaziabad,
Bulandshahr of Bulandshahr, Sahaswan of Budaun and Jaspur of Udhamsingh Nagar
in Uttarakhand.
Share of Muslims in the towns of the West UP pocket
Muslims have a higher presence in the towns of the UP
part of the pocket
The
share of Muslims in the towns of this pocket is generally higher than their
share in the total population. Census 2011 counts 154 towns in the eight
districts of northwest UP that we have been discussing here. Muslims form 51.76
percent of the population of the towns as compared to their share of 41.42
percent in the total population of these districts. They are in a majority in
103 of the 154 towns; their share is above 90 percent in 11 of these and
between 70 and 90 percent in another 44.
Muslim Share %
|
>90
|
80-90
|
70-80
|
60-70
|
50-60
|
40-50
|
30-40
|
20-30
|
<20
|
No.
of Towns
|
11
|
20
|
24
|
21
|
27
|
12
|
11
|
11
|
17
|
Muslim share in urban areas is higher in eight
districts
Muslim
Share %
|
||
District
|
Urban
|
Total
|
Saharanpur
|
51.28
|
41.95
|
Muzaffarnagar
|
51.19
|
41.30
|
Bijnor
|
50.30
|
43.04
|
Moradabad
|
63.61
|
47.12
|
Rampur
|
72.64
|
50.57
|
Jyotiba Phule Nagar
|
50.66
|
40.78
|
Meerut
|
46.78
|
34.43
|
Bareilly
|
47.10
|
34.54
|
Proportion
of Muslims in the urban population is considerably higher than in the total
population in the eight districts in the UP part of this pocket; in six of these,
Muslims form a majority of the urban population. It is only in Meerut and
Bareilly that the share of Muslims in the urban population is less than 50
percent; even there, their share is around 47 percent in both districts.
Share of Muslims in the urban population of Hardwar
Unlike
in the eight districts of Uttar Pradesh, in Hardwar of Uttarakhand, the ninth district
of this pocket, the share of Muslims in the urban areas is lower than in the total
population. They have a share of 27.37 percent in the urban population of the district
compared to 34.28 percent in the total population. But Muslims form a majority
in 7 of the 24 towns of this district; and, in six of these, their share is
above70 percent.
Another pocket of high Muslim growth in Uttarakhand
Rapid growth of Muslims in Hardwar and Udhamsingh
Nagar of Uttarakhand
Share of
Muslims
in Kumaon |
|
Year
|
%M
|
1961
|
5.24
|
1971
|
5.92
|
1981
|
6.43
|
1991
|
8.24
|
2001
|
10.10
|
2011
|
12.22
|
Accretion in Muslim share in Uttarakhand is the second
highest in India
Share of
Muslims
in Uttarakhand |
|
Year
|
%M
|
1991
|
10.00
|
2001
|
11.92
|
2011
|
13.95
|
The
rise in the share of Muslims in these two pockets is so high that Muslim
presence in the whole of Uttarakhand has risen by 4 percentage points since
1991, after the State was carved out of UP. In 1991, Muslims had a share of
10.00 percent in the population of the State; it rose to 11.92 percent in 2001
and has increased further to 13.95 percent in 2011. This makes Uttarkhand the
State with the second highest accretion to the share of Muslims in the country,
after only Assam.
Another pockets
of high Muslim presence and growth:
Bahraich-Balrampur-Siddharthnagar-Sant Kabirnagar belt of East UP
Bahraich-Balrampur-Siddharthnagar-Sant Kabirnagar belt of East UP
Besides
the 41 sub-districts in the northwest part of UP that we have discussed above,
there are another 8 sub-districts in the State with Muslim presence of more
than 30 percent. As seen in Map XXI-III above of the share of Muslims in the
sub-districts, these 8 sub-districts form a more or less contiguous region within
Bahraich, Shrawasti, Balrampur, Siddharthnagar and Sant Kabirnagar districts
lying along the border of Nepal in east UP. Muslim presence in the whole of
this border belt was rising quite rapidly up to 1991. The growth in their share
seems to have stalled after that. During 2001-11, the share of Muslims in the
five districts that we have mentioned here has increased only marginally, from
30.9 percent in 2001 to 31.5 percent in 2011. We have discussed this moderation
of Muslim growth in the neighbouring Bihar and Jharkhand in earlier notes, RDI
Blog III, RDI
Blog IV and RDI
Blog V. Their growth, however, continues to be robust in the
West UP pocket that we have discussed here and in Uttarakhand.
Number of Children in the Muslim population remains
high in the West UP Pocket
Gap in
the number of children per hundred of the population among Hindus and Muslims
seems to be narrowing in Uttar Pradesh; in several districts of UP and also
Uttarakhand, this number has in fact become negative, with the number of
children per hundred of the Muslim population being lower than the
corresponding number for Hindus. But, in most of the districts in the West UP
Pocket, this gap remains rather wide. Thus, in Muzaffarnagar, there are 13
children per hundred of the population among Hindus and 19 among Muslims,
leaving a gap of 6 children in favour of Muslims. The gap is of 4.6 children
per hundred in Saharanpur, of 5.6 children in Meerut, 7.5 children in Baghpat
and of 5.2 children per hundred of the population in Hardwar. This wide gap
between the Hindus and Muslims indicates that the rapid rise in the share of
Muslims in this region that has been happening since 1971-81 is not going to
slow down anytime soon.
Summing Up
1.
There is a pocket of very high Muslim presence and growth in northwest UP. It
comprises eight districts of Saharnpur, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Moradabad,
Rampur, Jyotiba Phule Nagar, Meerut and Bareilly in UP and the adjoining
district of Hardwar in Uttarakhand.
2.
This pocket accommodates 1.23 crore Muslims; they account for 30 percent of the
Muslims of UP and nearly half of the Muslims of Uttarakhand.
3. The
share of Muslims in this belt now is above 40 percent; it was less than 30
percent in 1951. This level of rise in the share of Muslims puts this pocket
among the regions of the greatest imbalance in the growth of Muslims and others.
4. Of
the accretion of more than 10 percentage points in the share of Muslims since
1951, more than 9 have been added after 1971. That year marks a turning point
in the growth of Muslims in several parts of India.
5.
Muslims form a majority in several sub-districts and towns of this pocket.
Muslim presence in the UP part of this pocket is considerably higher in the
urban areas. This, however, is not true for Hardwar of Uttarakhand.
6. Muslims
presence is relatively lower in Uttarakhand. But the growth in their share has
been rather rapid during the two decades since the formation of the State.
Share of Muslims in Uttarakhand rose from 10.00 percent in 1991 to 11.92
percent in 2001 and has further risen to 13.95 percent now. This accretion of
more than 2 percentage points in the share of Muslims during 2001-11 is the
second highest in the country after Assam.
7.
There is also a pocket of relatively high Muslim presence in the eastern part
of UP involving Bahraich, Shrawasti, Balrampur and Sant Kabir Nagar. Growth in
the share of Muslims used to be high in this region that borders on Nepal. But,
the rise has been fairly moderate during the last two decades.
8.
There is no similar moderation seen in the West UP pocket. On the other hand,
growth in the share of Muslims in this pocket seems to be becoming more robust.
This is reflected in the wide gap between the number of children per hundred of
the population of Hindus and Muslims in many districts of this pocket.
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