Ladakh is under great demographic stress
Ladakh has been agitated for some time. The region is in distress now. The people there have been asking for the protection of special constitutional provisions that are specifically designed to help preserve the way of life, culture and habitat of the vulnerable communities native to the remote hills and forests of the country. The Census data seems to indicate that the people of Ladakh, especially the ethnic Tibetan Buddhist communities of Bot/Boto and Changpa, are indeed under great demographic stress making them a shrinking group in terms of numbers.
The share of Ladakh in the population of the state of Jammu and Kashmir, of which it was a part until recently, has been consistently declining since 1951. The decline has been particularly sharp during 2001-2011, the last decade for which Census numbers are available.
This decline is entirely among the Scheduled Tribes, whose share in the population of Ladakh has declined sharply from 85.2 to 79.6 percent in this decade indicating a considerable influx of non-tribal people.
Within Ladakh, it is the pre-dominantly Buddhist district of Leh (Ladakh) and the Buddhist ST communities that are experiencing the greatest pressure. During 2001-2011, the absolute number of the Bot/Boto and Changpa has declined by about 8 percent.
We have earlier discussed these issues in our note on the religious demography of Jammu and Kashmir. We have also described the sharp decline in the share of Buddhists in all parts of India, including Ladakh, in a separate note. Below, we describe various aspects of the intense demographic pressure that the tribal communities of Ladakh, and especially the Buddhist ST communities, are already facing in 2011. The changes in the following years are likely to have been much more drastic and worrisome for the future of these vulnerable communities.
Area of Ladakh and Jammu & Kashmir
Area of J&K and Ladakh in km2 | |
Region | Area |
Ladakh | 59,146 |
Jammu | 26,293 |
Kashmir | 15,948 |
Under Indian control | 1,01,387 |
POK | 78,114 |
COK | 37,555 |
Shaksgam | 5,180 |
Under alien control | 1,20,849 |
Total | 2,22,236 |
Based on Table A-1 of Census 2011 | |
Ladakh covers a vast area of 59 thousand km2. This is larger than the combined area of both the Jammu and Kashmir Divisions of the former J&K State and the area of the newly formed Union Territory of J&K. However, the parts of the region under alien control —the Pakistan occupied Kashmir (POK) comprising Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, Chinese Occupied Kashmir (COK) comprising Aksai Chin, and the Shaksgam Valley that has been illegally ceded by Pakistan to China— together form an even larger area, which is more than double the area of Ladakh, as seen in the Table.
Density of Population in Ladakh
Area, Population and Density of Leh (Ladakh) and Kargil | |||
Area (km2) | Population | Density | |
Leh (Ladakh) | 45,110 | 1,33,487 | 2.96 |
Kargil | 14,036 | 1,40,802 | 10.03 |
Ladakh | 59,146 | 2,74,289 | 4.64 |
Census of 2011 counted only 2.74 lakh persons in Ladakh living in its vast area of 59 thousand km2. The density of population was less than 5 persons per km2. Leh part of Ladakh is even more sparsely populated, with the density in 2011 being less than 3 persons per km2, while the Kargil district had a relatively higher density of 10 persons per km2.
Relative Decline of Population in Ladakh
Decadal Growth Rate of the three Divisions of J&K State | |||||||
| 1941- | 1951- | 1961- | 1971- | 1981- | 1991- | 2001- |
J&K | 10.42 | 9.44 | 29.65 | 29.69 | 30.89 | 29.43 | 23.64 |
Kashmir | 12.22 | 10.89 | 28.23 | 28.71 | 32.97 | 31.39 | 25.77 |
Jammu | 8.51 | 7.84 | 31.96 | 30.95 | 28.36 | 26.97 | 21.41 |
Ladakh | 8.30 | 7.66 | 18.77 | 27.62 | 33.52 | 31.84 | 15.96 |
Decadal Growth Rates
Notwithstanding the very low density of population in Ladakh, it has been growing at a rate lower than that of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir of which it was a part until recently. As seen in the Table here, except the two decades of 1981-1991 and 1991-2001, the rate of growth of Ladakh has been the lowest of the three divisions into which the state was divided. The difference in the rate of growth of Ladakh and the other two divisions was particularly high during the decade of 1961-1971 and in the last decade of 2001-2011.
Share of Ladakh in J&K | |||
J&K | Ladakh | % Share | |
1951 | 32,53,852 | 82,340 | 2.53 |
1961 | 35,60,976 | 88,651 | 2.49 |
1971 | 46,16,632 | 1,05,291 | 2.28 |
1981 | 59,87,389 | 1,34,372 | 2.24 |
1991 | 78,37,051 | 1,79,410 | 2.29 |
2001 | 1,01,43,700 | 2,36,539 | 2.33 |
2011 | 1,25,41,302 | 2,74,289 | 2.19 |
Share of Ladakh in the Population of J&K
This differential in the rate of growth of Ladakh relative to the other two divisions has led to a decline in its share in the population of the erstwhile State. In 1951, its share in the population of J&K State was 2.53 percent. It has declined to 2.19 percent in 2011. Notice that the decline has taken place in two spurts: first during 1961-1971, when the share fell sharply from 2.49 to 2.24 percent and again during 2001-2011, when it declined from 2.33 to 2.19 percent.
Differential Growth of Leh (Ladakh) and Kargil
Population of Kargil and Leh | ||||
Ladakh | Kargil | Leh | Leh | |
1981 | 1,34,372 | 65,990 | 68,380 | 50.89 |
1991 | 1,79,410 | 89,334 | 90,076 | 50.21 |
2001 | 2,36,539 | 1,19,307 | 1,17,232 | 49.56 |
2011 | 2,74,289 | 1,40,802 | 1,33,487 | 48.67 |
Shares of Leh in the population of Ladakh
In 1979, Ladakh was divided into two districts of Leh (Ladakh) and Kargil. As we shall see later, Leh is predominantly Buddhist and Kargil is predominantly Muslim. Since the formation of the two separate districts, the growth of Kargil has been distinctly higher than that of Leh. Consequently, the share of Leh in the population of Ladakh has been declining. In 1981, soon after the division, Leh formed 51 percent of the population of Ladakh. In 2011, its share has declined to around 49 percent.
Decadal Growth Rates of Kargil and Leh | |||
Ladakh | Kargil | Leh | |
1981-1991 | 33.52 | 35.38 | 31.73 |
1991-2001 | 31.84 | 33.55 | 30.15 |
2001-2011 | 15.96 | 18.02 | 13.87 |
Decadal Growth Rates of Leh and Kargil
The gap between the decadal growth of the two districts was not high during the first two decades. It has considerably widened during 2001-2011. In this decade, growth of the population of Ladakh as a whole has also been much lower than the earlier decades and compared to the Jammu and Kashmir regions of the State. We shall see below that the population of the Scheduled Tribes of Leh has in fact shrunk during 2001-2011.
Decline in the Scheduled Tribes Population of Leh (Ladakh)
While the decadal rate of growth of the total population in Ladakh, particularly in Leh, has registered a considerable decline during 2001-2011, the growth has turned negative for the population of the Scheduled Tribes in Leh. In the Table here, we compile the population of Schedules Tribes in the erstwhile state of J&K and in Ladakh and its two districts for 2001 and 2011. The fourth column gives the decadal growth of the population of the Scheduled Tribes during 2001-2011 and in the last two columns of the Table, we give the share of Scheduled Tribes in the total population of different regions.
Population, Growth and Share of Scheduled Tribes | |||||
2001 | 2011 | Growth | 2001 | 2011 | |
J&K | 11,05,979 | 14,93,299 | 35.02 | 10.90 | 11.91 |
Ladakh | 2,01,551 | 2,18,193 | 8.26 | 85.21 | 79.55 |
Kargil | 1,05,377 | 1,22,336 | 16.09 | 88.32 | 86.89 |
Leh (Ladakh) | 96,174 | 95,857 | -0.33 | 82.04 | 71.81 |
Scheduled Tribes formed about 11 percent of the population of the erstwhile J&K State (including Ladakh) in 2001; their share increased to nearly 12 percent in 2011. In Ladakh, they formed a much higher share of 85 percent in 2001. But unlike in the State as a whole, their share in the population has declined significantly to around 79.6 percent. The decline in the share of Scheduled Tribes in the total population has occurred in both districts of Ladakh. The decline in Kargil, however, is marginal from 88 percent in 2001 to around 87 percent in 2011. In Leh, the share of the Scheduled Tribes has declined steeply, by as much as 10 percentage points from 82 percent to less than 72 percent.
It seems that during 2001-2011 considerable number of non-ST people from other parts of the State or the country have come into Ladakh. This has happened both in Kargil and in Leh, but the influx is much more pronounced.
As seen in the Table here, the population of Scheduled Tribes in Leh has suffered an absolute decline of about 317 persons between 2001 and 2011. Meanwhile, the total population has increased by 16,255 persons (See, the previous section). This implies that an accretion of 16,572 non-ST persons to the population since 2001. This forms 14 percent of the population of the district in 2001. Looking at it another way, the population of non-ST persons in the district has risen from 21,058 in 2001 to 37,630 in 2011, marking a rise of nearly 79 percent in their numbers. This is indeed a large influx for this remote sparsely populated region.
Decline in the Buddhist population in Leh (Ladakh)
Another way to understand the changes in the demography of Ladakh is to look at the changes in the religious composition of the region. Buddhists and Muslims form an overwhelming majority of the population. This is because the main ST-communities of Ladakh are either Buddhist or Muslim. However, with the declining share of STs in the population of the region, the Buddhist-Muslim predominance in the religious profile is also changing.
Religious Profile of Ladakh | ||||
| Population | % Share | ||
| 2001 | 2011 | 2001 | 2011 |
Ladakh | ||||
Total | 2,36,539 | 2,74,289 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
Hindu | 14,715 | 33,223 | 6.22 | 12.11 |
Muslim | 1,12,119 | 1,27,296 | 47.40 | 46.41 |
Christian | 409 | 1,262 | 0.17 | 0.46 |
Sikhs | 730 | 2,263 | 0.31 | 0.83 |
Buddhist | 1,08,493 | 1,08,761 | 45.87 | 39.65 |
Jain | 3 | 131 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
ORP | 13 | 58 | 0.01 | 0.02 |
RNS | 57 | 1,295 | 0.02 | 0.47 |
Leh (Ladakh) | ||||
Total | 1,17,232 | 1,33,487 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
Hindu | 9,573 | 22,882 | 8.17 | 17.14 |
Muslim | 16,156 | 19,057 | 13.78 | 14.28 |
Christian | 338 | 658 | 0.29 | 0.49 |
Sikhs | 503 | 1,092 | 0.43 | 0.82 |
Buddhist | 90,618 | 88,635 | 77.30 | 66.40 |
Jain | 2 | 103 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
ORP | 7 | 54 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
RNS | 35 | 1,006 | 0.03 | 0.75 |
Kargil | ||||
Total | 1,19,307 | 1,40,802 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
Hindu | 5,142 | 10,341 | 4.31 | 7.34 |
Muslim | 95,963 | 1,08,239 | 80.43 | 76.87 |
Christian | 71 | 604 | 0.06 | 0.43 |
Sikhs | 227 | 1,171 | 0.19 | 0.83 |
Buddhist | 17,875 | 20,126 | 14.98 | 14.29 |
Jain | 1 | 28 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
ORP | 6 | 4 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
RNS | 22 | 289 | 0.02 | 0.21 |
As seen in the Table here, Muslims and Buddhists together formed more than 93 percent of the population of Ladakh in 2001. In 2011, their combined share has declined to 86 percent. Share of both Muslims and Buddhists has declined. But the decline is much more pronounced for the latter. Share of Muslims has declined by just 1 percentage point, from 47.4 to 46.4 percent, while that of Buddhists has fallen drastically from 45.9 to 39.6 percent.
Drop in the share of Muslims is more pronounced in Kargil, where they have declined from 80.4 to 76.9 percent, while the Buddhists have declined only marginally from 15.0 to 14.3 percent. On the other hand, in Leh (Ladakh), the share of Buddhists has suffered a decline of 11 percentage points, from 77.3 to 66.4 percent, and the share of Muslims has marginally improved from 13.8 to 14.3 percent.
While, Buddhists and Muslims in Ladakh, especially the former, have seen a significant decline in their share of the population during 2001-2011, the share of all other religions has greatly improved. The share of Hindus has doubled from about 6 to 12 percent. In Leh (Ladakh), they now form a significant 17 percent of the population. Sikhs also have come to form nearly 1 percent of the population in both the districts of Ladakh. Christians have risen from an insignificant presence to a share of nearly half a percent. Share of Jains and ORPs, the Other Religious Persuasions continues to be insignificant, though the absolute numbers of both have multiplied considerably.
Buddhists in Ladakh, who comprise the main ethnic Tibetan Bhoti community of the region, are clearly under great demographic stress. It is partly due to the influx of non-ST communities as seen in the rise of Hindus and Sikhs.
Low fertility of Buddhists
The other contributing factor is the low fertility of Buddhists. We do not have data separately on the TFR of Buddhists in Ladakh, but according to NFHS-V (2019-2021), at the time of that survey, the average TFR of Buddhists in India had already fallen to as low as 1.39, far below the replacement level of 2.1. We have discussed the sharply declining numbers and share of Buddhists, both traditional Buddhist communities like those in Ladakh and the neo-Buddhists of the plains, in all parts of India in an earlier note.
Changes in the demography of the individual Scheduled Tribes of Ladakh
Bot (including Boto), Balti and Brokpa (including Drokpa, Dard and Shin) form the main Scheduled Tribe communities of Ladakh. Of these, Bot/Boto, form the main tribal community of Leh (Ladakh) and are largely Buddhist. Balti, Brokpa and Purigpa, who from the main tribal communities of Kargil, are largely Muslim. Though there indeed are a fair number of Muslim Bot and a fair number of Balti, Brokpa or Purigpa who are Buddhist.
Scheduled Tribes of Kargil
Of the 1.22 lakh ST persons counted in Kargil in 2011, about 39 thousand are Purigpa, 37 thousand Baltis, 22 thousand Brokpa and about 15 thousand Bots. Like the Baltis, the Brokpa and the Purigpa in this district are largely Muslim. Of the rest, about 10 thousand are counted as generic tribes and a few of the STs are from other communities.
Scheduled Tribes of Kargil, 2011 | ||||
All | Muslim | Buddhist | Others | |
All STs | 1,22,336 | 1,02,197 | 19,672 | 467 |
Bot, Boto | 14,836 | 1,598 | 13,165 | 73 |
Changpa | 49 | 49 | 0 | 0 |
Balti | 36,085 | 34,772 | 1,220 | 93 |
Brokpa, Drokpa, Dard, Shin | 22,035 | 20,560 | 1,371 | 104 |
Purigpa | 38,806 | 37,651 | 992 | 163 |
Generic | 9,909 | 7,000 | 2,876 | 33 |
Others | 616 | 567 | 48 | 1 |
Scheduled Tribes of Leh (Ladakh)
Of about 96 thousand ST persons in Leh in 2011, 74 thousand are Bot and 13 thousand Balti. Among the rest, there are about 2.4 thousand Changpa, who are nearly all Buddhists, 1.8 thousand Brokpa, who are also mainly Buddhists in this district. About 3.2 thousand persons in Leh are counted among the generic tribes and there are a few from other ST communities.
Scheduled Tribes of Leh (Ladakh), 2011 | ||||
All | Muslim | Buddhist | Others | |
All STs | 95,857 | 15,898 | 78,780 | 1,179 |
Bot, Boto | 74,268 | 2,805 | 70,888 | 575 |
Changpa | 2,374 | 3 | 2,366 | 5 |
Balti | 12,919 | 12,685 | 165 | 69 |
Brokpa, Drokpa, Dard, Shin | 1,848 | 75 | 1,763 | 10 |
Purigpa | 215 | 213 | 0 | 2 |
Generic | 3,227 | 81 | 2,687 | 459 |
Others | 1,006 | 36 | 911 | 59 |
Decline of the Buddhist Tribes
Decline of the Buddhist Tribes | ||||||
Ladakh | Kargil | Leh (Ladakh) | ||||
2001 | 2011 | 2001 | 2011 | 2001 | 2011 | |
All | 2,01,551 | 2,18,193 | 1,05,377 | 1,22,336 | 96,174 | 95,857 |
Bot, Boto | 94,161 | 89,104 | 16,499 | 14,836 | 77,662 | 74,268 |
Changpa | 5,032 | 2,423 | 106 | 49 | 4,926 | 2,374 |
Sum of Buddhist STs | 99,193 | 91,527 | 16,605 | 14,885 | 82,588 | 76,642 |
Balti | 37,784 | 49,004 | 26,541 | 36,085 | 11,243 | 12,919 |
Brokpa, Drokpa, Dard, Shin | 24,420 | 23,883 | 23,418 | 22,035 | 1,002 | 1,848 |
Purigpa | 37,669 | 39,021 | 37,642 | 38,806 | 27 | 215 |
Sum of Muslim STs | 99,873 | 1,11,908 | 87,601 | 96,926 | 12,272 | 14,982 |
Generic Tribes | 199 | 13,136 | 0 | 9,909 | 199 | 3,227 |
Others | 2,286 | 1,622 | 1,171 | 616 | 1,115 | 1,006 |
Between 2001 and 2011, the Buddhist STs— Bot/Boto and Changpa— have suffered a significant decline in their numbers in each of the two districts of Ladakh. As seen in the Table here, the population of Buddhist tribes has declined by more than 8 thousand persons between 2001 and 2011, with the numbers falling by about 2 thousand in Kargil and about 6 thousand in Leh. The population of Muslim STsv—Balti, Brokpa etc. and Purigpa— has, on the other hand, risen by about 12 thousand, with their number rising by about 9.3 thousand in Kargil and about 2.7 thousand in Leh (Ladakh).
There is a considerable rise in the number of persons counted as Generic Tribes. Among about 13 thousand extra persons counted under this category, around 7 thousand are Muslim and about 5.5 thousand Buddhist. Even after taking this into account, there has been a significant decline in the Buddhist tribes.
Conclusion
1. Share of Ladakh in the population of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir, of which it has formed a part until recently has been declining since 1951. The share was 2.53 percent in 1951 and 2.19 percent in 2011. The decline has happened mainly in the decade of 1961-1971 and then again in the last decade for which census numbers are available, 2001-2011.
2. Within Ladakh, the population of the Buddhist Leh (Ladakh) has been growing much more slowly than the mainly Muslim Kargil. Leh had a share of 51 percent in the population of Ladakh in 1981. Its share in 2011 is less than 49 percent.
3. The share of the Scheduled Tribes in the population of Ladakh has declined sharply during 2001-2011, from 85.2 to 79.6 percent. The decline is even steeper in Leh (Ladakh), from 82 to less than 72 percent. In Leh, even the absolute number of STs has slightly declined in this decade.
4. The number of non-ST persons in Leh (Ladakh) has risen by nearly 80 percent during 2001-2011 with an accretion of 16.5 thousand in their numbers in one decade. This in a total population of less than one lakh.
5. Religious profile of Ladakh has seen a sharp change, especially during 2001-2011. The share of Buddhists and Muslims, the religions of the main ethnic groups of Ladakh, has fallen sharply. The decline in the share is much more pronounced for Buddhists, whose share has dropped from 45.9 to 39.6 percent in Ladakh and from 77.3 to 66.4 percent in this decade. The share of Muslims has suffered a more modest decline of about 1 percent.
6. Among the individual Scheduled Tribes of Ladakh, the demography stress is being felt the most by the main Tibetan Buddhist ethnic communities of Bot/Boto and Changpa. Their absolute number during 2001-2011 has shrunk by about 8 thousand persons or about 8 percent of the population.
7. Buddhist communities in all parts of India are under demographic pressure. Their TFR had declined to just 1.39 percent in 2021. The ethnic Tibetan Buddhists are probably under the most demographic stress.
8. The changes we have noted are for the period up to 2011 and especially for the decade of 2001-2011. The inflow of people from outside is likely to have been more pronounced in the period since then. The impact of the very low fertility of the Buddhists is also likely to have become more pronounced. The demographic stress of Tibet as a whole and Tibetan Buddhist communities in particular is perhaps much more acute now than in 2011.
9. These vulnerable communities and their fragile region need a caring and protective policy for their survival.
