Rising religious imbalance in the declining fertility regime of Kerala
In this note, we compile and analyse the data on live births and deaths by religious community of Kerala for the period 2008 to 2021. We had in an earlier note analysed this data for live births up to 2015 and seen that the share of Muslims in the total live births was far above their share in the population and was rapidly rising.
The data that we have compiled now leads to the following striking conclusions:
1. The share of Muslims in the total live-births in Kerala has overtaken that of Hindus after 2015. Of the live-births in 2019, 44 percent belonged to Muslims and 41 percent to Hindus. This despite Hindus having a share of nearly 54 percent in the total population compared to less than 27 percent of Muslim according to Census 2011.
2. The share of Muslim in total deaths in this period has remained below 20 percent, which is considerably less than their share of 27 percent in the population. The share of Hindus in the total deaths, on the other hand, has remained around 60 percent, which is about 6 percentage points higher than their share in the population.
3. The share of Christians in live births, like that of Hindus, has also been declining and has reached around 14 percent in 2019 compared to their share of above 18 percent in the population as counted in Census 2011. Their share in the total deaths at around 19 percent during this period has been slightly above their share in the population.
4. The higher and rising share in live births and lower share in total deaths of the Muslims has led to their natural growth being much higher than their share in the population. Their share in the natural accretion to population of Kerala in this period has risen from 48 percent in 2008 to as high as 76 percent in 2019.
5. The numbers for 2021 are extremely striking. In this year, the total population of Kerala has grown by only around 80 thousand, while Muslims have added somewhat more than 1 lakh to their numbers, Hindus have grown by only around one thousand persons, and the number of all others, including Christians, has declined by 25 thousand.
6. For the ten years of 2011 to 2020, the natural accretion to the population of Kerala has been of around 26 lakhs, of which 16 lakhs are Muslims. If we ignore changes likely to have occurred because of migration or conversion between different communities, the share of Muslims in the population in this decade, because of natural accretion alone, would have risen by about 2.5 percentage points, which would be the highest rise in their share in the entire period of modern Census.
7. This large change in the relative proportion of Muslims has occurred in a period when the total fertility rate (TFR) of Kerala has been below the replacement level for nearly three decades and all other religious communities seem to have entered the phase of demographic decline.
The analysis of the data from Kerala indicates that the imbalance in the growth of different religious communities may worsen in the phase of declining fertility through which India is passing now. This points to the urgent need to have such data from other States of India to fully understand the changes that may be occurring in the religious demography of India in recent years, when the Total Fertility Rate of India has fallen below 2 and has reached much lower levels in several States.
The Civil Registration System of India is said to have considerably improved in recent years. Therefore, the kind of data that we have used in this note for Kerala is likely to be available for other States and UTs. It is important that the data of live births and deaths by religious community is published for all States and UTs with similar detail as Kerala has been doing for several years.
Births and Deaths according to religious community in Kerala
The State of Kerala regularly publishes an annual report or bulletin on the vital statistics as recorded in its civil registration system (CRS). The registration of births in the state seems to have achieved almost complete coverage. The annual reports claim that “Kerala has got cent percent record in the registration of births and 99.5 percent in the case of deaths”.[1]
These reports give, among many other parameters, breakup of live births according to religious community. In an earlier note published in 2017, we had compiled this data for eight years from 2008 to 2015. Our analysis at that time highlighted two major trends: One, the number of annual live births in Kerala had begun to decline sharply after reaching a peak of 5,60,268 births in 2011. Two, the share of Muslims in the annual live births was rapidly rising and was poised to outstrip that of Hindus. It had risen from 36.3 percent in 2008 to 41.5 percent in 2015. The share of Hindus in those eight years had declined from 45.0 to 42.9 percent and that of Christians from 17.6 to 14.2 percent. The share of Hindus, Muslims and Christians in the population of the State as counted in the Census of 2011 was 54.7, 26.6 and 18.4 percent. The share of Muslims in the live births had thus risen to more than one and half times their share in the population and that of the Hindus and Christians had declined to around three-fourths of their share in the population.
In this article, we revisit the data on live births according to religious community in Kerala to include the data up to 2021 that has now become available. In our earlier article, we had not analysed the data on deaths according to community. In the latter part of this article, we also compile this data and look at the net accretion, births minus deaths, in the population of each of the three major communities in this period.
The numbers indicate that the trend of declining number of total live births and a rising imbalance in the share of different communities in the total number of live births has continued in the later period also. The detailed data on live births in conjunction with the data on deaths reveals several striking trends, which we analyse below.
Live births by religious community in Kerala, 2008-2021
In Table 1 below, we have compiled the data on live births by religious community in Kerala from 2008 to 2021. Table 2 gives the share of different religious communities in the total live births during this period.
Number of total live births continues to decline
The data in Table 1 shows that the trend of decline in total live births that began after 2011 continues and seems to have become stronger. The figure below graphically depicts this continuing decline.
As seen in Table 1 and the figure here, the number of births in Kerala rose from 5.36 lakh in 2008 to the peak of 5.60 lakh in 2011. From there, it declined rapidly to reach 5.16 lakh in 2015. It has further declined to 4.46 lakhs in 2020 and 4.20 lakhs in 2021. The live births in 2021 are a quarter below the number in 2011. This, of course, is an indicator of the declining fertility of Kerala. The TFR in Kerala had fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 already by the early nineties as estimated in the first round of National Family Health Survey of 1992-93. It has fallen to 1.46 in 2021 according the annual vital statistics report for that year.
With TFR rates persisting below replacement levels for more than three decades, we expect not only the number of live births to decline, but also the total population to begin shrinking. Later in this article, we see that the population of some of the religious communities has indeed begun to decline in 2021 and the growth in population seems to be coming almost entirely from the Muslim community.
Share of different communities in the live births
In the figure below, we graphically depict the share of Hindus, Muslims and Christians in the total live births for the period 2008 to 2020. In these figures, we have not included the data for 2012 and 2021. As seen in Table 2, the breakup of total live births among different religious communities seems unreliable for 2012. In that year, as many as 57 thousand live births, amounting to more than 10 percent of the total, have been attributed to ‘Others’. This has depressed the number of live births among both Muslims and Hindus. Therefore, while looking at the changing shares of different communities in total live births, the data for 2012 needs to be excluded. The numbers for 2021 in Table 2, show a sudden and large decline in the share of Muslims, taking it below the share of Hindus for the first time since 2016. This may be an anomaly in the data or mark the beginning of a new trend. Later in this note, we analyse this issue in conjunction with the death rates of the two communities.
Share of Muslims in total live births has continued to rise
The data in the tables and figures above, shows that the share of Muslims in total live births has been rising consistently since 2008. The rise was somewhat slower up to 2011 and has been more rapid since then. This rising trend has led to the share of Muslims in live births overtaking that of Hindus after 2015. This is remarkable, because the share of Muslims in the total population of Kerala was less half that of Hindus in the Census of 2011.
The data shows a peaking of the share of Muslims at 44.35 percent of all live births in 2019. After that, there is a slight decline in 2020 and, as we have mentioned earlier, a further sharp decline to 40.33 percent in 2021 (Table 2). However, as we see later, this decline in the share of Muslims and a corresponding rise in that of Hindus and Christians is accompanied by the number of deaths among Hindus becoming almost equal to the live births. In case of Christians, recorded deaths in 2021 exceed the number of live births, thus leading to a shrinking of their population. We analyse this phenomenon later in this note.
Share of Muslims in live births is much higher than their share in population
In the 11 years from 2008, the year from which we begin compiling the data, to 2019, when the share of Muslims seems to reach its peak, their share in total live births has increased from 36.3 percent to 44.4 percent. The share of Hindus has correspondingly declined from 45.0 percent to 41.0 percent and that of Christians from 17.6 to 14.3 percent. The Muslims have thus registered a gain of as much as 8 percentage points in their share of live births, while Hindus have lost 4 percentage points from their share and Christians another 3.3 percentage points.
Share of Muslims in the live births is now far above their share in the total population as counted in 2011. According to Census 2011, Muslims in Kerala form only 26.6 percent of the population. But their share in the live births in 2019 is as high as 44.4 percent. On the other hand, Hindus have a share of 54.7 percent in the population, but their share in live births is only 41.0 percent. For Christians also, their share of 14.3 percent in total live births is far below their share of 18.4 percent in the population. Stated in other terms, the share of Muslims in live births is two-thirds more than their share in the population, while that of Hindus and Christians is a quarter less than of their share in the population. As we shall see below, this higher share of Muslims in live births is further accentuated by their relatively lower share in total deaths, thus leading to a considerable higher accretion to their population as compared to other communities.
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of different religious communities
The higher share of Muslims in live births is reflected in their higher Total Fertility Rate (TFR). The annual vital statistical reports of the state do not give TFR by religious community. The reports do give births by the age of mother and birth order for different communities. But the data is not sufficient to calculate the TFR by community.
In Table 4, we give the TFR of the State by religious community for the last four rounds of National Family Health Survey (NFHS). TFR by community was not published in the report of the first round of the survey. As seen here, the TFR of Muslims has been around 50 percent higher than that of Hindus in every round, excepting NFHS-4. The data from that round seems anomalous and contrary to the trend of the other rounds. But even in that round, the TFR of Muslims is 30 percent above that of Hindus.
It is remarkable that while the total fertility of the State was below the replacement level already in the first round and has been declining further, the TFR of Muslims has remained above the replacement level, if we ignore the anomalous numbers of the fourth round.
We may note that NFHS is based on a very limited sample. For example, for NHFS-V, a total of only 12,330 households were interviewed in Kerala. While this sample may be large enough for assessing demographic trends in the total population, it may be too small for looking at the data by religious community. That may be the reason for the TFR rates in Table 4 fluctuating from round to round. But the overall trend of the TFR of Muslims remaining considerably higher than that of Hindus and Christians is not in doubt.
The data from the civil registration system that we use in this article, however, does not suffer from this limitation. It is supposed to capture the entire number of live-births and deaths in the State.
Deaths by religious community in Kerala, 2008-2021
In Table 5 below, we have compiled data on deaths by religious community in Kerala for the periods 2008 to 2021 as recorded in the annual reports on vital statistics of the state for these years. In Table 6, we give the percent share of different religious communities in the total deaths for these years. In these Tables, the break-up of total deaths by religious community for 2012 seems unreliable. As we have noticed, for that year 10.4 percent of the live births were assigned to “Others”. In case of the data on deaths, even a larger proportion of 12.4 percent has been allocated among “Others”. The break-up of total deaths by religious community seems somewhat unreliable for 2020 and 2021 also. An unusually high 2.1 percent of deaths have been assigned to “Others” for 2020 and for 2021, the share assigned to this category is much higher at 8.3 percent. We have earlier noticed that the data on live births for these years, especially for 2021, also seems anomalous.
The number of total deaths has remained relatively consistent
The figures in Table 5 show that, unlike the number of live births that has been consistently declining in this period, the number of deaths does not show any consistent trend. If we leave out the number of deaths in 2008, which seems abnormally low, and for 2021, which is abnormally high, the number of total deaths for the remaining years has been fluctuating around 2,50,000 per annum during this period.
The share of Muslims in total deaths is far below their share in the population
The most remarkable aspect of the data in Table 6 is that the share of Muslims has remained generally below 20 percent throughout this period, compared to their share of 26.6 percent in the population according to the Census of 2011. The share of Hindus in total deaths, on the other hand, has hovered around 60 percent, if we exclude the anomalous numbers of 2012 and 2021. Their share in the population is far lower at 54.7 percent in 2011, which is likely to have declined further by 2021. The share of Christians in total deaths has been around 19 to 20 percent, which is also slightly above their share of 18.4 percent in the total population as counted in Census 2011.
The Muslims in this period, thus, have experienced a higher share in live births and a lower share in deaths than their share in the population. The Christians have had lower births and slightly higher deaths compared to their share. And Hindus have experienced both a considerably lower share in live births and a considerably higher share in deaths in proportion to their share in the total population.
Natural Accretion of population in this period
Because of a higher share in live births and a lower share in deaths, natural accretion to the population of Muslims, calculated as the difference between the number of live-births and total deaths, has been much more than any other religious community. In Table 7 below, we give the figures for the natural accretion of population in Kerala according to community. This natural accretion (live births minus deaths) does not include changes in the population that may have occurred because of other reasons like in or out migration and conversion from one religion community to another. Table 8 gives the share of different communities in natural accretion during this period.
Natural accretion is the highest for Muslims
The most striking aspect of the numbers in Table 7 is that the natural accretion has been the highest for Muslims throughout this period. If we exclude the anomalous numbers of 2012, the number of persons added per year was rising for Muslims up to 2014. After that, there seems to be a decrease in the number of accretions, but that decrease has been much sharper for Hindus and Christians. If the 2021 numbers can be relied upon, then the number of natural accretions has declined to almost nothing for Hindus and has turned negative for Christians. It seems that all other communities except the Muslims have entered the phase of declining population. The figure below depicts this phenomenon of persistently high natural accretion of Muslims compared to Hindus and Christians. We have not included the data for 2021 in this figure.
Share of Muslims in natural accretion has been rising
In the figure below, we depict the changing share of different religious communities in the natural accretion in the population of Kerala for the period 2008 to 2020.
As seen in Table 8 and the figure here, the share of Muslims in natural accretion has been consistently rising, if we ignore the anomalous data of 2012. Their share has risen from 48 percent in 2008 to 76 percent in 2019. The numbers for 2020 show a slight decline in their share, but as we have seen, the allocation of births and deaths to “Religion Not Stated” or “Others” has been somewhat anomalous for this year also.
In Table 9 above, we have calculated the total natural accretion in the population of different communities for the decade since the last Census of 2011. Adding this accretion to the populations counted in 2011, we get a rough estimate of the population of Kerala by religious community in 2021 and of the likely change in the religious profile of the State in this decade.
Remarkably, of the total natural accretion of 25.67 lakhs in the population of Kerala between 2011 and 2021, 16.08 lakhs is contributed by Muslims alone. Hindus and Christians have contributed 6.44 lakhs and 2.88 lakhs, respectively.
If natural accretion is the only factor effecting population, then total population of the State would record a growth of 7.68 percent in the decade of 2011-2021, which is probably near the growth in the population of India in this period. But this growth would be grossly unequal between different communities. Muslims would have grown by 18.13 percent, Hindus by only 3.52 percent and Christians by 4.69 percent.
As a result of this unequal growth, the share of Muslims in the population of the State would grow to 29.14 percent in 2021 from 26.56 percent in 2011. Correspondingly, the share of Hindus would decline by nearly two percentage points from 54.73 to 52.61 percent and that of Christians from 18.38 to 17.87 percent.
Such a growth in the share of Muslims would be considerably more than the long-term trend since 1951. Between 1951 and 2011, their share has grown from 17.53 to 26.56 percent, recording a growth of 9 percentage points in 6 decades, with an average rise in their share of about 1.5 percentage points per decade. There has indeed been a rising trend in the increase in share from decade to decade, but so far, the increase has touched 2 percentage points only once. This was during the decade of 1981-91, when the share of Muslims in the population of the State rose from 21.25 to 23.33 percent. The data on live births and deaths suggests that during the decade of 2011-21, Muslim share is set to rise by about 2.5 percentage points, from 26.56 to 29.14 percent.
The analysis indicates that in a scenario of declining fertility, the imbalance in the growth of different religious communities is likely to become even more pronounced.
Reconsidering the numbers for 2020 and 2021
In the above, we have been referring to the somewhat anomalous nature of the number of live births and deaths during 2020 and 2021. Share of Muslims in live births declines between 2019 and 2020, though it remains above that of Hindus. (See, Table 2 and the associated figure). In the same year, the share of Muslims in natural deaths registers a slight rise. This leads to their share in the natural accretion declining from 76.14 to 74.42 percent. (See, Table 6, Table 8 and the associated figure).
The data for 2021 shows further surprises. The share of Muslims in live births further declines and in fact falls below that of Hindus in that year. But, notwithstanding the somewhat higher share of Hindus in live births, the absolute number of their live births turns out to be only slightly above the number of deaths. The accretion in their population for that year is only 1,099. Christians also are in a similar situation. Their share in live births also registers a slight rise in 2021 compared to the previous year, but the absolute number of live births for them turn out to be considerably lower than the number of deaths, leading to a negative growth of 6,218 persons in their population.
Even though the share of Muslims in live births declines and in deaths rises between 2020 and 2021, their share in the total accretion in population of that year reaches 130 percent while the share of other communities cumulatively declines by 30 percent.
The figures for 2020 and 2021 may be indicating a decline in the fertility of Muslims. But the numbers also indicate that even with such decline, the religious imbalance between different communities can worsen, because the other two major communities, Hindus and Muslims, seem to have entered the phase of sharp shrinkages in their population. In this context, the numbers for the next few years shall be interesting to watch.
Conclusion
We have compiled and analysed the data on live births and deaths by religious community for Kerala for the period 2008 to 2021. We had earlier analysed the data for live births up to 2015 and seen that the share of Muslims in the total live births was far above their share in the population and was rapidly rising. The data that we have compiled now leads to the following striking conclusions:
1. The share of Muslims in the total live-births in Kerala has overtaken that of Hindus after 2015. Of the live-births in 2019, 44 percent belonged to Muslims and 41 percent to Hindus. This despite Hindus having a share of nearly 54 percent in the total population compared to less than 27 percent of Muslim according to Census 2011.
2. The share of Muslim in total deaths in this period has remained below 20 percent, which is considerably less than their share of 27 percent in the population. The share of Hindus in the total deaths, on the other hand, has remained around 60 percent which is about 6 percentage points higher than their share in the population.
3. The share of Christians in live births, like that of Hindus, has also been declining and has reached around 14 percent in 2019 compared to their share of above 18 percent in the population in Census 2011. Their share in the total deaths at around 19 percent during this period has been slightly above their share in the population.
4. The higher and rising share in live births and lower share in total deaths of the Muslims has led to their natural growth being much higher than their share in the population. Their share in the natural accretion to population of Kerala in this period has risen from 48 percent in 2008 to as high as 76 percent in 2019.
5. The numbers for 2021 are extremely striking. In this year the total population of Kerala has grown by only around 80 thousand, while Muslims have added somewhat more than 1 lakh to their numbers, Hindus have grown by only around one thousand persons, and the number of all others, including Christians, has declined by 25 thousand.
6. For the ten years of 2011 to 2020, the natural accretion to the population of Kerala has been of around 26 lakhs, of which 16 lakhs are Muslims. If ignore changes likely to have occurred because of migration or conversion between different communities, the share of Muslims in the population in this decade, because of natural accretion alone, would have risen by about 2.5 percentage points, which would be the highest rise in their share in the entire period of modern Census.
7. This large change in the relative proportion of Muslims has occurred in a period when the total fertility rate (TFR) of Kerala has been below the replacement level for nearly three decades and all other religious communities seem to have entered the phase of demographic decline.
8. The data indicates that the imbalance in the growth of different religious communities may worsen in the phase of declining fertility through which India is passing now. Therefore, it is important to continuously collect, compile and analyse data on the vital statistics from all States and UTs of India.
9. Fortunately, the civil registration system (CRS) of India as a whole is said to have considerably improved over the last few years. We are probably now capturing nearly complete data on live births and deaths across the whole country. It is important that the CRS data for all States and UTs disaggregated by religious community is published regularly for the country to keep a watch on the changing religious composition of the population in different parts of India.
Reference
[1] Annual Vital Statistics Report 2008, Vital Statistics Division, Department of Economics & Statistics, Government of Kerala, Thiruvananthapuram 2010, p. 11. The data in this article, unless otherwise stated, is from the Annual Vital Statistics Report from 2008 to 2021.
