Religious Demography of India: I Kerala

Rising religious imbalance in the declining fertility regime of Kerala

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In this note, we compile and analyse the data on live births and deaths by religious community of Kerala for the period 2008 to 2021. We had in an earlier note analysed this data for live births up to 2015 and seen that the share of Muslims in the total live births was far above their share in the population and was rapidly rising. 

The data that we have compiled now leads to the following striking conclusions:

1. The share of Muslims in the total live-births in Kerala has overtaken that of Hindus after 2015. Of the live-births in 2019, 44 percent belonged to Muslims and 41 percent to Hindus. This despite Hindus having a share of nearly 54 percent in the total population compared to less than 27 percent of Muslim according to Census 2011.

2. The share of Muslim in total deaths in this period has remained below 20 percent, which is considerably less than their share of 27 percent in the population. The share of Hindus in the total deaths, on the other hand, has remained around 60 percent, which is about 6 percentage points higher than their share in the population.

3. The share of Christians in live births, like that of Hindus, has also been declining and has reached around 14 percent in 2019 compared to their share of above 18 percent in the population as counted in Census 2011. Their share in the total deaths at around 19 percent during this period has been slightly above their share in the population.

4. The higher and rising share in live births and lower share in total deaths of the Muslims has led to their natural growth being much higher than their share in the population. Their share in the natural accretion to population of Kerala in this period has risen from 48 percent in 2008 to as high as 76 percent in 2019.

5. The numbers for 2021 are extremely striking. In this year, the total population of Kerala has grown by only around 80 thousand, while Muslims have added somewhat more than 1 lakh to their numbers, Hindus have grown by only around one thousand persons, and the number of all others, including Christians, has declined by 25 thousand.

6. For the ten years of 2011 to 2020, the natural accretion to the population of Kerala has been of around 26 lakhs, of which 16 lakhs are Muslims. If we ignore changes likely to have occurred because of migration or conversion between different communities, the share of Muslims in the population in this decade, because of natural accretion alone, would have risen by about 2.5 percentage points, which would be the highest rise in their share in the entire period of modern Census.

7. This large change in the relative proportion of Muslims has occurred in a period when the total fertility rate (TFR) of Kerala has been below the replacement level for nearly three decades and all other religious communities seem to have entered the phase of demographic decline. 

The analysis of the data from Kerala indicates that the imbalance in the growth of different religious communities may worsen in the phase of declining fertility through which India is passing now. This points to the urgent need to have such data from other States of India to fully understand the changes that may be occurring in the religious demography of India in recent years, when the Total Fertility Rate of India has fallen below 2 and has reached much lower levels in several States.

The Civil Registration System of India is said to have considerably improved in recent years. Therefore, the kind of data that we have used in this note for Kerala is likely to be available for other States and UTs. It is important that the data of live births and deaths by religious community is published for all States and UTs with similar detail as Kerala has been doing for several years. 

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Births and Deaths according to religious community in Kerala 

The State of Kerala regularly publishes an annual report or bulletin on the vital statistics as recorded in its civil registration system (CRS). The registration of births in the state seems to have achieved almost complete coverage. The annual reports claim that “Kerala has got cent percent record in the registration of births and 99.5 percent in the case of deaths”.[1]  

These reports give, among many other parameters, breakup of live births according to religious community. In an earlier note published in 2017, we had compiled this data for eight years from 2008 to 2015. Our analysis at that time highlighted two major trends: One, the number of annual live births in Kerala had begun to decline sharply after reaching a peak of 5,60,268 births in 2011. Two, the share of Muslims in the annual live births was rapidly rising and was poised to outstrip that of Hindus. It had risen from 36.3 percent in 2008 to 41.5 percent in 2015. The share of Hindus in those eight years had declined from 45.0 to 42.9 percent and that of Christians from 17.6 to 14.2 percent. The share of Hindus, Muslims and Christians in the population of the State as counted in the Census of 2011 was 54.7, 26.6 and 18.4 percent. The share of Muslims in the live births had thus risen to more than one and half times their share in the population and that of the Hindus and Christians had declined to around three-fourths of their share in the population.

In this article, we revisit the data on live births according to religious community in Kerala to include the data up to 2021 that has now become available. In our earlier article, we had not analysed the data on deaths according to community. In the latter part of this article, we also compile this data and look at the net accretion, births minus deaths, in the population of each of the three major communities in this period.

The numbers indicate that the trend of declining number of total live births and a rising imbalance in the share of different communities in the total number of live births has continued in the later period also. The detailed data on live births in conjunction with the data on deaths reveals several striking trends, which we analyse below.

Live births by religious community in Kerala, 2008-2021

In Table 1 below, we have compiled the data on live births by religious community in Kerala from 2008 to 2021. Table 2 gives the share of different religious communities in the total live births during this period. 

Number of total live births continues to decline 

The data in Table 1 shows that the trend of decline in total live births that began after 2011 continues and seems to have become stronger. The figure below graphically depicts this continuing decline.

As seen in Table 1 and the figure here, the number of births in Kerala rose from 5.36 lakh in 2008 to the peak of 5.60 lakh in 2011. From there, it declined rapidly to reach 5.16 lakh in 2015. It has further declined to 4.46 lakhs in 2020 and 4.20 lakhs in 2021. The live births in 2021 are a quarter below the number in 2011. This, of course, is an indicator of the declining fertility of Kerala. The TFR in Kerala had fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 already by the early nineties as estimated in the first round of National Family Health Survey of 1992-93. It has fallen to 1.46 in 2021 according the annual vital statistics report for that year.

With TFR rates persisting below replacement levels for more than three decades, we expect not only the number of live births to decline, but also the total population to begin shrinking. Later in this article, we see that the population of some of the religious communities has indeed begun to decline in 2021 and the growth in population seems to be coming almost entirely from the Muslim community.

Share of different communities in the live births

In the figure below, we graphically depict the share of Hindus, Muslims and Christians in the total live births for the period 2008 to 2020. In these figures, we have not included the data for 2012 and 2021. As seen in Table 2, the breakup of total live births among different religious communities seems unreliable for 2012. In that year, as many as 57 thousand live births, amounting to more than 10 percent of the total, have been attributed to ‘Others’.  This has depressed the number of live births among both Muslims and Hindus. Therefore, while looking at the changing shares of different communities in total live births, the data for 2012 needs to be excluded. The numbers for 2021 in Table 2, show a sudden and large decline in the share of Muslims, taking it below the share of Hindus for the first time since 2016. This may be an anomaly in the data or mark the beginning of a new trend. Later in this note, we analyse this issue in conjunction with the death rates of the two communities. 

Share of Muslims in total live births has continued to rise

The data in the tables and figures above, shows that the share of Muslims in total live births has been rising consistently since 2008. The rise was somewhat slower up to 2011 and has been more rapid since then. This rising trend has led to the share of Muslims in live births overtaking that of Hindus after 2015. This is remarkable, because the share of Muslims in the total population of Kerala was less half that of Hindus in the Census of 2011.

The data shows a peaking of the share of Muslims at 44.35 percent of all live births in 2019. After that, there is a slight decline in 2020 and, as we have mentioned earlier, a further sharp decline to 40.33 percent in 2021 (Table 2). However, as we see later, this decline in the share of Muslims and a corresponding rise in that of Hindus and Christians is accompanied by the number of deaths among Hindus becoming almost equal to the live births. In case of Christians, recorded deaths in 2021 exceed the number of live births, thus leading to a shrinking of their population. We analyse this phenomenon later in this note.

Share of Muslims in live births is much higher than their share in population

In the 11 years from 2008, the year from which we begin compiling the data, to 2019, when the share of Muslims seems to reach its peak, their share in total live births has increased from 36.3 percent to 44.4 percent. The share of Hindus has correspondingly declined from 45.0 percent to 41.0 percent and that of Christians from 17.6 to 14.3 percent. The Muslims have thus registered a gain of as much as 8 percentage points in their share of live births, while Hindus have lost 4 percentage points from their share and Christians another 3.3 percentage points.

Share of Muslims in the live births is now far above their share in the total population as counted in 2011. According to Census 2011, Muslims in Kerala form only 26.6 percent of the population. But their share in the live births in 2019 is as high as 44.4 percent. On the other hand, Hindus have a share of 54.7 percent in the population, but their share in live births is only 41.0 percent. For Christians also, their share of 14.3 percent in total live births is far below their share of 18.4 percent in the population. Stated in other terms, the share of Muslims in live births is two-thirds more than their share in the population, while that of Hindus and Christians is a quarter less than of their share in the population. As we shall see below, this higher share of Muslims in live births is further accentuated by their relatively lower share in total deaths, thus leading to a considerable higher accretion to their population as compared to other communities. 

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of different religious communities

The higher share of Muslims in live births is reflected in their higher Total Fertility Rate (TFR). The annual vital statistical reports of the state do not give TFR by religious community. The reports do give births by the age of mother and birth order for different communities. But the data is not sufficient to calculate the TFR by community.

In Table 4, we give the TFR of the State by religious community for the last four rounds of National Family Health Survey (NFHS). TFR by community was not published in the report of the first round of the survey. As seen here, the TFR of Muslims has been around 50 percent higher than that of Hindus in every round, excepting NFHS-4. The data from that round seems anomalous and contrary to the trend of the other rounds. But even in that round, the TFR of Muslims is 30 percent above that of Hindus.

It is remarkable that while the total fertility of the State was below the replacement level already in the first round and has been declining further, the TFR of Muslims has remained above the replacement level, if we ignore the anomalous numbers of the fourth round.

We may note that NFHS is based on a very limited sample. For example, for NHFS-V, a total of only 12,330 households were interviewed in Kerala. While this sample may be large enough for assessing demographic trends in the total population, it may be too small for looking at the data by religious community. That may be the reason for the TFR rates in Table 4 fluctuating from round to round. But the overall trend of the TFR of Muslims remaining considerably higher than that of Hindus and Christians is not in doubt.

The data from the civil registration system that we use in this article, however, does not suffer from this limitation. It is supposed to capture the entire number of live-births and deaths in the State.

Deaths by religious community in Kerala, 2008-2021

In Table 5 below, we have compiled data on deaths by religious community in Kerala for the periods 2008 to 2021 as recorded in the annual reports on vital statistics of the state for these years. In Table 6, we give the percent share of different religious communities in the total deaths for these years. In these Tables, the break-up of total deaths by religious community for 2012 seems unreliable. As we have noticed, for that year 10.4 percent of the live births were assigned to “Others”. In case of the data on deaths, even a larger proportion of 12.4 percent has been allocated among “Others”. The break-up of total deaths by religious community seems somewhat unreliable for 2020 and 2021 also. An unusually high 2.1 percent of deaths have been assigned to “Others” for 2020 and for 2021, the share assigned to this category is much higher at 8.3 percent. We have earlier noticed that the data on live births for these years, especially for 2021, also seems anomalous.

The number of total deaths has remained relatively consistent

The figures in Table 5 show that, unlike the number of live births that has been consistently declining in this period, the number of deaths does not show any consistent trend. If we leave out the number of deaths in 2008, which seems abnormally low, and for 2021, which is abnormally high, the number of total deaths for the remaining years has been fluctuating around 2,50,000 per annum during this period. 

The share of Muslims in total deaths is far below their share in the population

The most remarkable aspect of the data in Table 6 is that the share of Muslims has remained generally below 20 percent throughout this period, compared to their share of 26.6 percent in the population according to the Census of 2011. The share of Hindus in total deaths, on the other hand, has hovered around 60 percent, if we exclude the anomalous numbers of 2012 and 2021. Their share in the population is far lower at 54.7 percent in 2011, which is likely to have declined further by 2021. The share of Christians in total deaths has been around 19 to 20 percent, which is also slightly above their share of 18.4 percent in the total population as counted in Census 2011.

The Muslims in this period, thus, have experienced a higher share in live births and a lower share in deaths than their share in the population. The Christians have had lower births and slightly higher deaths compared to their share. And Hindus have experienced both a considerably lower share in live births and a considerably higher share in deaths in proportion to their share in the total population.

The differences are striking. The share of Hindus in the live births is 13.7 percentage points lower and their share in deaths is 6 percent higher than their share in population of 2011 (Table 3 and Table 6). The share of Christians in the live births is 4 percentage points lower than and their share in total deaths is somewhat higher than their share in population. The share of Muslims is more than 14 percent higher in live births and at least 6 percent lower in total deaths as compared to their share in population. The gap in the share of live births of different communities has only been growing during the period we are considering (see the figures above), while it has remained more or less steady in the share of deaths.

Natural Accretion of population in this period

Because of a higher share in live births and a lower share in deaths, natural accretion to the population of Muslims, calculated as the difference between the number of live-births and total deaths, has been much more than any other religious community. In Table 7 below, we give the figures for the natural accretion of population in Kerala according to community. This natural accretion (live births minus deaths) does not include changes in the population that may have occurred because of other reasons like in or out migration and conversion from one religion community to another. Table 8 gives the share of different communities in natural accretion during this period.

Natural accretion is the highest for Muslims

The most striking aspect of the numbers in Table 7 is that the natural accretion has been the highest for Muslims throughout this period. If we exclude the anomalous numbers of 2012, the number of persons added per year was rising for Muslims up to 2014. After that, there seems to be a decrease in the number of accretions, but that decrease has been much sharper for Hindus and Christians. If the 2021 numbers can be relied upon, then the number of natural accretions has declined to almost nothing for Hindus and has turned negative for Christians. It seems that all other communities except the Muslims have entered the phase of declining population. The figure below depicts this phenomenon of persistently high natural accretion of Muslims compared to Hindus and Christians. We have not included the data for 2021 in this figure.

Share of Muslims in natural accretion has been rising

In the figure below, we depict the changing share of different religious communities in the natural accretion in the population of Kerala for the period 2008 to 2020.

As seen in Table 8 and the figure here, the share of Muslims in natural accretion has been consistently rising, if we ignore the anomalous data of 2012. Their share has risen from 48 percent in 2008 to 76 percent in 2019. The numbers for 2020 show a slight decline in their share, but as we have seen, the allocation of births and deaths to “Religion Not Stated” or “Others” has been somewhat anomalous for this year also.

Decadal Accretion 2011-2021

In Table 9 above, we have calculated the total natural accretion in the population of different communities for the decade since the last Census of 2011. Adding this accretion to the populations counted in 2011, we get a rough estimate of the population of Kerala by religious community in 2021 and of the likely change in the religious profile of the State in this decade.

Remarkably, of the total natural accretion of 25.67 lakhs in the population of Kerala between 2011 and 2021, 16.08 lakhs is contributed by Muslims alone. Hindus and Christians have contributed 6.44 lakhs and 2.88 lakhs, respectively. 

If natural accretion is the only factor effecting population, then total population of the State would record a growth of 7.68 percent in the decade of 2011-2021, which is probably near the growth in the population of India in this period. But this growth would be grossly unequal between different communities. Muslims would have grown by 18.13 percent, Hindus by only 3.52 percent and Christians by 4.69 percent.

As a result of this unequal growth, the share of Muslims in the population of the State would grow to 29.14 percent in 2021 from 26.56 percent in 2011. Correspondingly, the share of Hindus would decline by nearly two percentage points from 54.73 to 52.61 percent and that of Christians from 18.38 to 17.87 percent.

Such a growth in the share of Muslims would be considerably more than the long-term trend since 1951. Between 1951 and 2011, their share has grown from 17.53 to 26.56 percent, recording a growth of 9 percentage points in 6 decades, with an average rise in their share of about 1.5 percentage points per decade. There has indeed been a rising trend in the increase in share from decade to decade, but so far, the increase has touched 2 percentage points only once. This was during the decade of 1981-91, when the share of Muslims in the population of the State rose from 21.25 to 23.33 percent. The data on live births and deaths suggests that during the decade of 2011-21, Muslim share is set to rise by about 2.5 percentage points, from 26.56 to 29.14 percent.

The analysis indicates that in a scenario of declining fertility, the imbalance in the growth of different religious communities is likely to become even more pronounced.

Reconsidering the numbers for 2020 and 2021

In the above, we have been referring to the somewhat anomalous nature of the number of live births and deaths during 2020 and 2021. Share of Muslims in live births declines between 2019 and 2020, though it remains above that of Hindus. (See, Table 2 and the associated figure). In the same year, the share of Muslims in natural deaths registers a slight rise. This leads to their share in the natural accretion declining from 76.14 to 74.42 percent. (See, Table 6, Table 8 and the associated figure).

The data for 2021 shows further surprises. The share of Muslims in live births further declines and in fact falls below that of Hindus in that year. But, notwithstanding the somewhat higher share of Hindus in live births, the absolute number of their live births turns out to be only slightly above the number of deaths. The accretion in their population for that year is only 1,099. Christians also are in a similar situation. Their share in live births also registers a slight rise in 2021 compared to the previous year, but the absolute number of live births for them turn out to be considerably lower than the number of deaths, leading to a negative growth of 6,218 persons in their population.

Even though the share of Muslims in live births declines and in deaths rises between 2020 and 2021, their share in the total accretion in population of that year reaches 130 percent while the share of other communities cumulatively declines by 30 percent.

The figures for 2020 and 2021 may be indicating a decline in the fertility of Muslims. But the numbers also indicate that even with such decline, the religious imbalance between different communities can worsen, because the other two major communities, Hindus and Muslims, seem to have entered the phase of sharp shrinkages in their population. In this context, the numbers for the next few years shall be interesting to watch.

Conclusion

We have compiled and analysed the data on live births and deaths by religious community for Kerala for the period 2008 to 2021. We had earlier analysed the data for live births up to 2015 and seen that the share of Muslims in the total live births was far above their share in the population and was rapidly rising. The data that we have compiled now leads to the following striking conclusions:

1. The share of Muslims in the total live-births in Kerala has overtaken that of Hindus after 2015. Of the live-births in 2019, 44 percent belonged to Muslims and 41 percent to Hindus. This despite Hindus having a share of nearly 54 percent in the total population compared to less than 27 percent of Muslim according to Census 2011. 

2. The share of Muslim in total deaths in this period has remained below 20 percent, which is considerably less than their share of 27 percent in the population. The share of Hindus in the total deaths, on the other hand, has remained around 60 percent which is about 6 percentage points higher than their share in the population.

3. The share of Christians in live births, like that of Hindus, has also been declining and has reached around 14 percent in 2019 compared to their share of above 18 percent in the population in Census 2011. Their share in the total deaths at around 19 percent during this period has been slightly above their share in the population.

4. The higher and rising share in live births and lower share in total deaths of the Muslims has led to their natural growth being much higher than their share in the population. Their share in the natural accretion to population of Kerala in this period has risen from 48 percent in 2008 to as high as 76 percent in 2019.

5. The numbers for 2021 are extremely striking. In this year the total population of Kerala has grown by only around 80 thousand, while Muslims have added somewhat more than 1 lakh to their numbers, Hindus have grown by only around one thousand persons, and the number of all others, including Christians, has declined by 25 thousand.

6. For the ten years of 2011 to 2020, the natural accretion to the population of Kerala has been of around 26 lakhs, of which 16 lakhs are Muslims. If ignore changes likely to have occurred because of migration or conversion between different communities, the share of Muslims in the population in this decade, because of natural accretion alone, would have risen by about 2.5 percentage points, which would be the highest rise in their share in the entire period of modern Census. 

7. This large change in the relative proportion of Muslims has occurred in a period when the total fertility rate (TFR) of Kerala has been below the replacement level for nearly three decades and all other religious communities seem to have entered the phase of demographic decline.

8. The data indicates that the imbalance in the growth of different religious communities may worsen in the phase of declining fertility through which India is passing now. Therefore, it is important to continuously collect, compile and analyse data on the vital statistics from all States and UTs of India.

9. Fortunately, the civil registration system (CRS) of India as a whole is said to have considerably improved over the last few years. We are probably now capturing nearly complete data on live births and deaths across the whole country. It is important that the CRS data for all States and UTs disaggregated by religious community is published regularly for the country to keep a watch on the changing religious composition of the population in different parts of India.

Reference

[1] Annual Vital Statistics Report 2008, Vital Statistics Division, Department of Economics & Statistics, Government of Kerala, Thiruvananthapuram 2010, p. 11. The data in this article, unless otherwise stated, is from the Annual Vital Statistics Report from 2008 to 2021.

Democracy and Consensus

 लोकतन्त्र में व्यापक सर्वसम्मति की अनिवार्यता

 

Adversarial politics is an unfortunate but essential part of electoral democracy. But, in functioning democracies, this adversarial contention takes place on a substratum of consensus across parties about most issues of serious national concern. Unfortunately, during the last ten years in India, that solid ground of consensus on which the game of adversarial politics is played seems to have disappeared. The political contenders today treat each other as enemies rather than mere adversaries. This does not bode well for a democracy. In this article in Hindi, we discuss the issue and place it in the perspective of the several decades of the functioning of democratic polity in India. We draw attention to this growing deficit of consensus on the occasion of Diwali, the festival of homecoming, harmony and reconciliation.

लोकतन्त्र का आधार सर्वसम्मति में है। प्रभावी सक्षम लोकतन्त्र में अधिकतर विषयों पर, राष्ट्र की अधिकतर समस्याओं पर और उनके समाधान पर व्यापक राष्ट्रीय एकमत होता है। पक्ष-विपक्ष में असहमति का क्षेत्र सीमित होता है। राष्ट्रजीवन के गिने-चुने ही आयाम होते हैं जिनपर सभी एकमत नहीं होते। विचार-विमर्श से उन आयामों पर भी सहमति बनाने के प्रयास किये जाते हैं। जहाँ सहमति नहीं बन पाती, वहाँ भी पक्ष-विपक्ष में इतनी समझदारी तो बनती है कि बहुमत जो प्रस्ताव रख रहा है वह राष्ट्रविरोधी तो नहीं ही है। जब-जब सहमति का क्षेत्र संकुचित होता है और पक्ष-विपक्ष में यह भावना बन जाती है अथवा बना दी जाती है कि दूसरा पक्ष राष्ट्रविरोधी है, विघटनकारी है अथवा निपट मूर्ख है, जब-जब पक्ष-विपक्ष में संवादहीनता की स्थिति आ खड़ी होती है, तब-तब स्वस्थ लोकतन्त्र का चलना कठिन हो जाता है। 

 

प्रायः तीन दशक पूर्व मा. लालकृष्ण आडवाणी जी ने लोकतन्त्र में सर्वसम्मति का अनिवार्यता का विषय हमारी एक संगोष्ठी में उठाया था। यह सर्वपक्षीय संगोष्ठी ऑबसर्वर रिसर्च फाउंडेशन के श्री ऋषिकुमार मिश्र और सेंटर फॉर पॉलिसी स्टडीज़ के संयुक्त तत्वावधान में १९९७ में आयोजित की गयी थी। सेंटर ने उस समय भारत में अन्न के गहन अभाव और अन्नबाहुल्य के सनातन भारतीय अनुशासन का वर्णन करते हुए अन्नं बहु कुर्वीत नामक एक पुस्तक प्रकाशित की थी। उसी संदर्भ में यह गोष्ठी थी। गोष्ठी में समस्त राजनीतिक पक्षों के उस समय के उच्चतम नेता उपस्थित थे। भाकपा के नेता चतुरानन मिश्र उस समय केन्द्रीय कृषि मन्त्रि थे। उन्होंने संगोष्ठी का उद्घाटन संबोधन प्रस्तुत किया। भाजपा के श्री अटलबिहारी वाजपेयी उद्घाटन सत्र के अध्यक्ष थे। कांग्रेस के श्री मूपनार इस सत्र के मुख्य अतिथि थे। अन्य सत्रों में श्री मुरली मनोहर जोशी, श्री अजित सिंह, श्री डी. राजा, श्री नितीश कुमार, श्री गोवन्दाचार्य आदि विभिन्न दलों का प्रतिनिधित्व कर रहे थे। समापन सत्र की अध्यक्षता श्री आडवाणी जी ने की और उनके साथ श्री चन्द्रशेखर और श्री प्रणव मुखर्जी उस सत्र में उपस्थित थे।

 

संगोष्ठी में दिन-भर पक्ष-प्रतिपक्ष के समस्त राजनेताओं की उपस्थिति को और भूख-निवारण की समस्या पर उस दिन की सर्वसम्मति को रेखांकित करते हुए श्री आडवाणी ने अपने समापन भाषण में प्रभावी लोकतन्त्र में सर्वसम्मति की अनिवार्यता का विषय उठाया। उन्होंने कहा—

 

“इस संगोष्ठी में भाग लेते हुए मेरे मन में भारत के सार्वजनिक जीवन का एक और आयाम आ रहा है। हम जानते हैं कि स्वतन्त्रताप्राप्ति पर हमने लोकतान्त्रिक व्यवस्था को अपनाया था। इसका एक अर्थ यह था कि विभिन्न विचारधाराओं को मानने वाले पक्ष विभिन्न विषयों पर विरोधात्मक विचार रखेंगे, वे अपनी-अपनी विचारधारा के अनुरूप वाद-विवाद करेंगे और विभिन्न पक्षों के इस विरोधात्मक व्यवहार के मध्य देश अपने लोकतान्त्रिक मार्ग पर आगे बढ़ता जायेगा। पचास वर्षों से इस परस्पर विरोधात्मक मार्ग पर चलते हुए हम आज की स्थिति में पहुँचे हैं। परन्तु इस परस्पर विरोधात्मक व्यवहार को लोकतन्त्र का अभिन्न अंग मानते हुए भी हमें यह जानना चाहिये के भारत की समस्याएँ विकट हैं और जब तक हम कुछ महत्त्वपूर्ण विषयों पर सर्वसम्मति नहीं बना लेते तब तक हम कहीं नहीं पहुँच पायेंगे। जब तक सब पक्षों के राजनेता भारत की मूलभूत समस्याओं और उनके समाधान के मार्ग के प्रति एकमत नहीं हो पाते तब तक हम इस देश का कुछ भला नहीं कर पायेंगे। …”

(इस संगोष्ठी की संपूर्ण कार्यवाही अंग्रेजी में यहाँ उपलब्ध है।)

आडवाणीजी उस दिन एकत्रित सभी पक्षों के राजनेताओं के मध्य लोकतन्त्र में राष्ट्र की मौलिक समस्याओं पर सर्वसम्मति की अनिवार्यता का जो विषय उठा रहे थे, वह केवल भारत के परिप्रेक्ष्य में ही नहीं अपितु सब लोकतान्त्रिक व्यवस्थाओं में मूलभूत माना जाता है। पिछले कुछ वर्षों से अमरीका में अनेक मौलिक विषयों पर वहाँ के दो प्रमुख राजनीतिक पक्षों में बड़ी खाई पैदा हुई है। सर्वसम्मति के इस अभाव पर वहाँ के प्रबुद्ध लोग सतत चिन्ता व्यक्त करते रहते हैं। दोनों पक्षों के अनेक सीनेटर मूल समस्याओं पर एकमत बनाने का प्रयास भी करते रहते हैं। अनेक ऐसे अवसर आये हैं जब विरोधात्मक राजनीति के चलते लोकतान्त्रिक व्यवस्था में गत्यावरोध-सा उपस्थित होने लगता है, और फिर दोनों पक्षों के कुछ सांसद मिलकर द्विपक्षीय समाधान निकाल लेते हैं। विचारधाराओं में अत्यन्त गहन विरोध होते हुए भी राष्ट्रीय समस्याओं का सर्वसम्मत समाधान होता रहता है। 

 

एशिया के अनेक देशों ने तो आधुनिक पश्चिमी पद्धति का लोकतन्त्र अपनाते हुए अपने-अपने राष्ट्र की परिस्थिति के अनुरूप ऐसी औपचारिक व्यवस्थाएँ बनायी हैं जिनसे विरोधात्मक राजनीति के ऊपर राष्ट्रीय सर्वसम्मति का कोई आधार बना रहे, कोई एक सर्वसम्मानित छत्र बना रहे। उन्नीसवीं सदी के अन्त में जब जापान ने पश्चिमी पद्धति का लोकतान्त्रिक संविधान बनाया तो उससे पहले प्रायः दो दशकों तक सार्वजनिक स्तर पर यह चिन्ता होती रही कि विरोधात्मक पक्ष-विपक्ष वाली नीति वहाँ आयेगी तो समाज में व्याप्त सर्वसम्मति बिखर जायेगी। इस प्रक्रिया में उन्होंने अपने सम्राट को पक्ष-विपक्ष की राजनीति से बहुत ऊपर, सब के सम्मानित, राष्ट्र की गरिमा के प्रतीक एवं सर्वसम्मति की धुरी के रूप में स्थापित कर लिया। ऐसा करने के पश्चात् ही जापान ने पश्चिमी पद्धति के लोकतन्त्र को स्वीकार किया था। 

 

भारत में हम जापान के सम्राट के समकक्ष राष्ट्रीय सर्वसम्मति की किसी धुरी को तो स्थापित नहीं कर पाये थे। पर संविधान-निर्माताओं ने राष्ट्रपति के पद को वैसी गरिमा प्रदान करने का प्रयास किया था। कुछ सीमा तक हमारे राष्ट्रपति पक्ष-विपक्ष की राजनीति से ऊपर और दोनों के सम्मान का पात्र बने भी रहे हैं। पर हमारे संविधान में राष्ट्रपति की शक्तियाँ सीमित हैं। मूलभूत समस्याओं पर जिस प्रकार की सर्वसम्मति की अपेक्षा आडवाणीजी कर रहे थे उसका संपादन करवाने का प्रयास करना भी राष्ट्रपति के कार्यक्षेत्र में नहीं आता। इसलिये राष्ट्र में वाञ्छनीय सर्वसम्मति बनाये रखने का उत्तरदायित्व पक्ष-विपक्ष के और विशेषतः सत्तापक्ष के उच्च राजनेताओं पर ही आता है। 

 

यह सौभाग्य का विषय है कि भारतीय लोकतन्त्र के ७७ वर्षों में हमारे राजनेताओं ने अपने इस उत्तरदायित्व का पालन करते हुए कुछ स्तर तक सर्वसम्मति बनायी रखी है। यह सर्वसम्मति वैसी तो नहीं रही जिसकी अपेक्षा आडवाणीजी ने व्यक्त की थी, जिसके आधार पर कोई भी सत्तापक्ष अन्य सब पक्षों को साथ लेकर निश्चिन्तता से राष्ट्रनिर्माण के कार्य को आगे बढ़ाता चला जा सके। पर एक न्यूनतम सहमति और पक्ष-विपक्ष के मध्य परस्पर सम्मान, संवाद एवं सहकार की भी स्थिति तो अधिकतर बनी ही रही है। इसीलिये हम इस दीर्घकाल तक लोकतन्त्र को निभा पाये हैं। इस काल में हम देश को समर्थ-विकसित देशों की श्रेणी में चाहे न ला पाये हों पर सामाजिक, सामरिक एवं आर्थिक क्षेत्रों में पर्याप्त आगे बढ़े हैं। सामाजिक क्षेत्र में, विभिन्न समुदायों को सत्ता एवं समाज में समुचित प्रतिनिधित्व देने के विषय में तो हम लोकतान्त्रिक ढंग से ऐसे बड़े परिवर्तन कर पाये हैं जिन्हें करने के लिये अन्य देशों को रक्तरञ्जित क्रान्तियों से निकलना पड़ा है। यह हमारी राजनीति में बनी एक न्यूनतम सर्वसम्मति, पक्ष-विपक्ष के राजनेताओं का एक-दूसरे के प्रति सम्मान का भाव रखने और परस्पर संवाद बनाये रखने के कारण ही हो पाया है।

 

इन ७७ वर्षों में कुछेक काल ऐसे भी आये हैं जब सामान्य सर्वसम्मति, परस्पर सम्मान एवं संवाद की इस मूलभूत लोकतान्त्रिक अनिवार्यता का उल्लंघन हुआ है। उन कालों में लोकतन्त्र बिखरने की स्थिति में पहुँचा है। इनमें से एक काल तब आया था जब १९६२ में चीन से मिली सामरिक पराजय के कारण देश के एक बड़े वर्ग में उस समय के प्रधानमन्त्री श्री जवाहरलाल नेहरु के प्रति मोहभंग की स्थित बन गयी थी। उनकी नेतृत्व क्षमता पर विश्वास नहीं रहा था। उच्च राजनेताओं में परस्पर सम्मान एवं संवाद की कड़ी टूट गयी थी। परन्तु शीघ्र ही देश उस स्थिति से उबर आया था। उस उबरने में नेहरुजी के उत्तराधिकारी श्री लालबहादुर शास्त्री के सौम्य-सहज व्यक्तित्व और सबको साथ लेकर चलने की वृत्ति का बड़ा योगदान था।

 

राजनीति में न्यूनतम सर्वसम्मति एवं परस्पर सम्मान-संवाद की लोकतान्त्रिक अनिवार्यता का उल्लंघन फिर १९७३ से १९७७ के मध्य हुआ। उस बार तो भारतीय लोकतन्त्र एकदा बिखर ही गया था। १९७५ में आन्तरिक आपातकाल की घोषणा हुई, दो वर्ष तक सामान्य लोकतान्त्रिक व्यस्थाएँ स्थगित रहीं और विपक्ष के अनेक नेता और कार्यकर्ता काराबद्ध रहे। उस आपदा से हम भारत के सामान्य जनों की लोकतन्त्र के प्रति गहन आस्था एवं प्रतिबद्धता के कारण ही उबर पाये। १९७७ में स्वतन्त्र एवं निष्पक्ष चुनाव हुए। श्रीमति इंदिरा गांधी हारीं। फिर मात्र ३ वर्ष पश्चात् उन्हीं इंदिरा गांधी को भारत के लोगों ने विशाल बहुमत से जितवा दिया। यह घटनाक्रम भारत के लोगों की लोकतन्त्र की सर्वसम्मति वाली समझ का उदाहरण है। राजनैतिक पक्ष-विपक्ष का जब आपस में संवाद टूट भी जाता है, तब भी हमारे लोगो दोनों के मध्य संतुलन बनाये रखते हैं और दोनों का सम्यक आकलन करने की क्षमता बनाये रखते हैं।

 

लगता है कि १९७७ के पश्चात् राजनीति में न्यूनतम आवश्यक सर्वसम्मति के टूटने और पक्ष-विपक्ष में परस्पर सम्मान एवं संवाद के अभाव की स्थिति आज पुनः देश के सामने उपस्थित है। ऐसी स्थिति बनने का क्रम दस वर्ष पहले भाजपा एवं राष्ट्रीय स्वयंसेवक संघ की हिन्दुत्ववादी एवं साग्रह राष्ट्रवादी विचारधारा के सत्ता में आने के साथ ही चल पड़ा था। इस सत्ता में प्रारम्भ से ही लोकतन्त्र में न्यूनतम सर्वसम्मति एवं संवाद स्थापित का प्रयास करते रहने की अनिवार्यता की उपेक्षा की गयी। ऐसी स्थापनाएँ की गयी कि इस सत्ता से पूर्व के सात दशकों में राष्ट्रनिर्माण की दिशा में कुछ नहीं हुआ। पूर्व के राजनेताओं की राष्ट्र के प्रति कोई आस्था नहीं थी, उनमें से कुछ तो राष्ट्र के प्रति विद्वेष रखते थे। उनकी विचारधारा तो भ्रामक थी ही, उन्हें प्रभावी शासन-प्रशासन चलाना भी नहीं आता। इन सब स्थापनाओं का पारंपरिक एवं नये प्रचार साधनों के माध्यम से व्यापक प्रसार किया गया।

 

पूर्व के राजनेताओं को भ्रमित, अक्षम एवं राष्ट्रविरोधी स्थापित करने का यह प्रयास केवल स्वाधीनता के पश्चात् के काल तक सीमित नहीं रहा। उससे पहले के स्वतन्त्रतासंग्राम के उच्चतम राजनेताओं पर, यहाँ तक कि स्वयं महात्मा गांधी पर भी इसी प्रकार के आक्षेप किये गये। किसी समाज में न्यूनतम सर्वसम्मति बनाये रखने का प्रमुख स्रोत सर्वमान्य महापुरुषों के प्रति सम्मान होता है। इस काल में हमारे महापुरुषों की सर्वमान्यता को खण्डित करने के समन्वित प्रयास हुए। इससे लोकतन्त्र के लिये अनिवार्य न्यूनतम सर्वसम्मति का आधार ही समाप्त होने लगा।

 

इतना ही नहीं, व्यापक स्तर पर प्रयास हुए कि सार्वजनिक सेवाओं में भर्ती में सत्ता से जुड़ी विचारधारा एवं विचारपरिवार के लोगों को वरीयता मिल पाये। शिक्षा के क्षेत्र में तो समन्वित प्रयास कर इसी एक विचारधारा एवं विचारपरिवार से इतर के लोगों को प्रायः बहिष्कृत ही कर दिया गया।

 

ये सब व्यवहार लोकतन्त्र के लिये न्यूनतम सर्वसम्मति को खण्डित करने वाले थे। परन्तु फिर भी दस वर्षों तक लोकतन्त्र अबाध चलता रहा, व्यापक स्तर पर टूटती हुई सर्वसम्मति का कोई आपातकाल जैसा प्रभाव नहीं दिखा। इसका एक कारण तो यही था कि संसद और अनेक राज्यों की विधायिकाओं में विपक्ष की उपस्थिति नगण्य हो गयी थी। भारत के लोगों को ऐसा लगा था कि इस एकपक्षीय सत्ता के उत्थान से देश शीघ्र ही आत्मनिर्भर सक्षम एवं विकसित देशों की श्रेणी में आ खड़ा होगा। देश के हिन्दुओं को भी लगा था कि राष्ट्र एवं समाज में अपने धर्म को अभिव्यक्ति दे पायेंगे, पूर्व के राजनेताओं के धर्मनिरपेक्षता पर अति-आग्रह के चलते यह उनके लिये प्रतिबन्धित सा हो गया था। इसलिये १० वर्षों तक उन्होंने इस विचारधारा को प्रायः एकछत्र सत्ता में बनाये रखा।

 

परन्तु यह निश्चित है कि न्यूनतम सर्वसम्मति के बिना और पक्ष-विपक्ष में परस्पर सम्मान एवं संवाद के बिना कोई लोकतान्त्रिक व्यवस्था बहुत देर तक चल नहीं सकती। पिछले चुनाव में विपक्ष कुछ सक्षम होकर उभरा है। इसलिये अब पिछले दस वर्षों की एकपक्षीय राजनीति एवं समाजनीति को निरन्तर चलाना सम्भव नहीं होगा। इस परिस्थिति में लोकतन्त्र को अक्षुण्ण बनाये रखना है तो पक्ष-विपक्ष में संवाद स्थापित करने के प्रयास करने पड़ेंगे। एक दूसरे को प्रति कुछ सम्मान का भाव पुनः स्थापित करने के प्रयास करने पड़ेंगे। किसी एक विचारधारा-विचारपरिवार के लोगों को सार्वजनिक जीवन एवं सार्वजनिक शिक्षा में एकाधिकार देने की प्रवृत्ति को रोकना पड़ेगा।  केवल राजनीति में ही नहीं, समस्त लोकजीवन में एक न्यूनतम सर्वसम्मति, सहमति, समन्वय स्थापित करने का प्रयास करना होगा। सर्वसम्मति, सहमति, समन्वय लोकतन्त्र के अभिन्न अंग है। इनके बिना लोकतन्त्र चला नहीं करता। इस समय हमारे लोकतन्त्र में इनका अभाव है।

 

भारतीय लोकतन्त्र के समक्ष आज यही सबसे बड़ी चुनौती है।

डॉ. जतिन्दर कुमार बजाज

सेंटर फॉर पॉलिसी स्टडीज़, चेन्ने एवं दिल्ली

policy.cpsindia@gmail.com, www.cpsindia.org, blog.cpsindia.org

अगस्त २४, २०२४

 

डॉ. जतिन्दर कुमार बजाज सेंटर फॉर पॉलिसी स्टडीज़ के संस्थापक-निदेशक हैं। वे भारतीय समाजविज्ञान परिषद् के अध्यक्ष और अन्य पिछड़ा जातियों के उपवर्गीकरण हेतु आयोग के सदस्य रहे हैं। २०२२ में उन्हें पद्मश्री से सम्मानित किया गया। 

यह लेख सामाजिक आर्थिक एवं संसदीय अध्ययन केन्द्र राँची की संसदीय लोकतंत्र: चुनौतियां एवं समाधान विषय पर प्रकाशित स्मारिका २०२४-२५ के लिये लिखा गया है और स्मारिका के पृष्ठ ३२-३६ पर छपा है।

Documents of Our Times-I

 

Canada has been publicly alleging, since September 2023, that the GOI is running a campaign of targeted killings of Canadian citizens of Indian origin. India has repeatedly held these allegations to be completely unfounded. It has also been castigating the Government of Canada, and Prime Minister Trudeau personally, for indulging in these “laughable” aspersions merely to gain domestic political advantage. In this context, The Washington Post has published a report directly naming the Home Minister of India for having authorised the operations. This report is, in all likelihood, vicious anti-India disinformation spread at the behest of Canada. But, the mere fact of such an allegation having been made in a reputed international newspaper makes this report a significant historical document of our times. Below, we reproduce the complete text of the report from:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/14/canada-modi-sikhs-violence-india/

Canada alleges much wider campaign 

by Modi government against Sikhs

By Greg Miller, Gerry Shih

 

 

The killing of a Sikh separatist in Canada last year was part of a broader campaign of violence against Indian dissidents directed by a senior official in the Indian government and an operative in the country’s spy agency, according to Canadian officials who cited intercepted Indian communications and other newly acquired information.

 

Canadian authorities have also identified at least six Indian diplomats serving in Canada who were directly involved in gathering detailed intelligence on Sikh separatists who were then killed, attacked or threatened by India’s criminal proxies, Canadian officials said.

 

Canada ordered all six of those diplomats to leave the country in notices that were sent early Monday, the officials said. Among them were India’s top diplomat in the Sanjay Kumar Verma, and its top consular official in Toronto, the officials said. 

 

India issued a conflicting statement saying it had withdrawn the diplomats over concerns for their safety. India later announced that it had expelled six Canadian diplomats, including Canada’s top diplomat in New Delhi.

 

The previously undisclosed details about India’s alleged involvement in the 2023 death of Hardeep Singh Nijjar and other attacks stem from an ongoing investigation that Canadian authorities said has uncovered extensive evidence linking a larger outbreak of violence in Canada to the administration of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. 

 

“We know they are involved in the Nijjar killing, in other murders and in ongoing violence — actual violence — in Canada,” said a senior Canadian official. The official said that since Nijjar’s death, the pace of threats has escalated to such an extent that authorities have warned a dozen individuals of Indian descent that there was credible information they could be targeted. The official and others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the investigation, citing the sensitivity of allegations that have caused a rupture in relations between Delhi and Ottawa. 

 

India has vehemently denied the accusations. A statement issued by the country’s Ministry of External Affairs on Monday said that Modi’s government “strongly rejects these preposterous imputations and ascribes them to the political agenda” of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. 

 

Trudeau said Monday that “the response of the Indian government has been to deny, to obfuscate, to attack me personally and the integrity of the government of Canada and its officials and its police agencies.” 

 

Even so, the new allegations add to mounting concerns among Western security officials and human rights organizations that Modi’s government has become one of the world’s most aggressive practitioners of “transnational repression,” or the use of violence and other means to neutralize perceived homegrown adversaries who have sought refuge in other countries. 

 

The Biden administration, which has cultivated closer ties with India, last year confronted Modi administration officials with intelligence that an officer in India’s Research and Analysis Wing, a spy service known as RAW, was behind an attempt to assassinate a Sikh separatist in New York — a failed plot with parallels to the Nijjar case in Canada. The Post identified the RAW officer as Vikram Yadav, though he was not named in a U.S. indictment accusing an alleged Indian drug trafficker of seeking to hire a hit man to carry out the killing. 

 

Nijjar and Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, the target of the New York plot, were leaders of a movement that for decades has campaigned to carve out an independent Sikh state in northern India. The movement was marked by violent clashes in the 1980s, but has been relatively dormant since a crackdown led to a mass exodus of Sikhs to other countries. 

 

Modi, who came to power as a champion of Hindu nationalism, has revived concerns about the supposed threat posed by Sikhs living abroad. Modi and other officials have frequently accused Canada, which has the world’s largest population of Sikhs outside India, of harboring terrorists. 

 

Canadian officials said they only recently began to grasp the magnitude of the covert campaign of violence India has waged against Sikhs as new evidence emerged from an ongoing investigation of Nijjar’s killing that is led by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police but has involved other agencies, as well as intelligence provided by the United States and other allies. 

 

Officials said the investigation has uncovered evidence of Indian government involvement in home invasions, drive-by shootings, arson and at least one additional killing. 

 

Officials cited the death of Sukhdool Singh, who was shot in Winnipeg on Sept. 20, 2023, less than a day after he was featured in a wanted list of gangsters posted on X by India’s National Investigation Agency. The killing came two days after Trudeau publicly accused India of killing Nijjar. 

 

Officials described an operational “chain” in which Indian diplomats in Canada collect intelligence on alleged Sikh separatists that is then used by RAW to identify targets for attacks carried out by a criminal syndicate led by Lawrence Bishnoi, whose organization, the officials said, has an extensive presence in Canada. Bishnoi is imprisoned in India and could not be reached for comment. His organization has previously asserted responsibility for violent attacks in Canada, officials said. 

 

Officials said Indian diplomats have used violence as well as threatened to deny needed immigration documents to coerce Indians living in Canada to serve as informants against Sikh activists. Canadian officials said this scheme involves Indian officials at the country’s consulates in Vancouver and Toronto as well as its High Commission — the embassy equivalent — in Ottawa. Canadian officials said the collection operation was overseen by Verma, India’s high commissioner in Ottawa. 

 

“The coercion goes far beyond threatening to deny visas, to include physical threats to them and their families in India,” said a senior Canadian official, who added that “the information is being sent to India at almost the highest level.”

 

Conversations and texts among Indian diplomats include references to “a senior official in India and a senior official in RAW” who have authorized the intelligence-gathering missions and attacks on Sikh separatists, the Canadian official said. 

 

Canadian officials identified the senior official in India as Amit Shah, a member of Modi’s inner circle who serves as home affairs minister. Spokespeople in India’s Ministry for External Affairs and its Home Ministry, which oversees national security matters, did not respond to requests for comment about Shah’s alleged role. 

 

Canadian officials shared details about the references to Shah and other evidence with India’s national security adviser, Ajit Doval, at a secret meeting in Singapore on Saturday. Canadians who took part in the meeting included Trudeau’s national security adviser, Nathalie Drouin, and Deputy Foreign Minister David Morrison, as well as a top RCMP official. 

 

Canada had sought the meeting in an attempt to persuade Modi’s government to end an escalating campaign of violence in Canada, but also to warn that details exposing Indian involvement in attacks were likely to become public as prosecutors move forward next month with a planned trial of four suspects in Nijjar’s killing. 

 

Instead, officials said Doval made clear that India “would deny any link to the Nijjar murder and any link to any other violence in Canada no matter what the evidence was,” a senior Canadian official said.

 

Officials provided other details about the five-hour encounter with Doval, 79, a former spymaster who is seen as one of Modi’s closest confidants and has served as national security adviser for a decade. 

 

Doval “did admit that India did use its diplomats to follow people, take pictures, et cetera, but denied any links to threats or violence,” an official said. 

 

When Canadian officials outlined evidence that India had enlisted Bishnoi’s gang networks in Canada to carry out the Nijjar killing and other attacks, Doval initially “pretended not to have any idea who the guy was,” a Canadian official said. Later, however, Doval began rattling off “facts, figures and anecdotes” about Bishnoi, acknowledging that he “was capable of orchestrating violence from wherever he is incarcerated” and “was known to be up to no good from his jail cell.” 

 

Bishnoi, 31, is one of India’s most notorious mob bosses, officials said, but has also been accused on social media of collaborating with the government while in prison. Bishnoi’s gang asserted responsibility for Singh’s killing in September last year after Trudeau’s public statement linking India to Nijjar’s death. 

 

In a news conference Monday — Canada’s Thanksgiving holiday — RCMP officials said that violence orchestrated by India had become a “significant threat to public safety,” and that at least eight people have been arrested and charged in connection with homicide cases and nearly two dozen in connection with extortion investigations. 

 

Canadian requests to interview Indian diplomats implicated in attacks were rebuffed by Modi’s government, officials said. 

 

Doval ended the Saturday meeting by asking his counterparts to treat the discussion as if it “never took place” — meaning they should refrain from issuing any public statement or acknowledgment of the gathering. 

 

By the time Drouin and Morrison had made it back to Ottawa, however, pro-Modi media reports had surfaced in India describing how Indian officials had taken a “strong stance” and lectured Canada that “it cannot make unsubstantiated charges.” 

 

Amanda Coletta in Toronto contributed to this report.

 

The Washington Post

Updated October 14, 2024 at 2:16 p.m. EDT|Published October 14, 2024 at 11:01 a.m. EDT