Age Pyramids: Populations of different religious communities of India indeed look very different
In the previous post, we discussed the rapid and nearly complete Christianisation of the Scheduled Tribes of Arunachal Pradesh. We need to discuss several other issues concerning that State; but it is not possible to deal with the religious demography of Arunachal Pradesh and the other States of the northeast comprehensively without knowing the religious profile of the individual Scheduled Tribe populations there. As we repeatedly mention in our post on Arunachal Pradesh, this data for Census 2011 is not available yet. We hope that the relevant Table (ST-15) shall be soon released. We shall revert to the religious demography of Arunachal Pradesh and the other States of the northeast after that.
Meanwhile, the Census has released, for the first time, data on the age-distribution of different religious communities. Age distribution data tells much about the history and the future growth of a population. In this note, we give age pyramids of different religious communities for India and for some of the States. These figures graphically show the vast different in the population dynamics of different religious communities.
Age Pyramids
An
age pyramid is a graphic representation of the distribution of a population by
age and gender. For this purpose, the population is typically divided into
5-year age groups (also called cohorts), beginning with the 0-4 years and going
up to say 75-79 years and above. The pyramid comprises back-to-back graphs for
males and females; by convention, the left graph depicts the age distribution
of males and the right graph of the females.
To
a trained demographer, and also to a lay educated person, an age pyramid
conveys a great deal about the dynamics of the population it represents. In
particular, it indicates the past trends and future possibilities of growth of
the population; it also says something about the relative birth and death rates
in the population; and, it graphically shows the gender ratio for different age
groups.
Typically,
the age pyramid of an expanding population is wide at the base and narrow at
the top; the number of children in such a population is relatively higher, and only
a few people live up to higher ages. As the population stabilises, the base
begins to contract, and initially there is a bulge in the middle, indicating a
larger number of youth in the population. This bulge in the middle is often
referred to as the ‘demographic dividend’. In a harmonious, functioning and
well-organised society, the youth bulge can lead to higher economic activity
and growth; in others, it can lead to much violence and tension. At some stage,
the populations may begin to contract; age pyramids of such populations get
reversed, these become wider at the top and narrower at the bottom.
As
we see below, in India, the age pyramids of different religious communities
differ considerably from each other. The pyramids for Muslims are considerably
wider at the base as compared to others and some communities, particularly the
Jains, Sikhs and Buddhists, seem to be reaching demographic stability and even
contraction. The age pyramids also differ widely from State to State.
Age pyramids of the all-India
population of different communities
Hindus and Muslims
Below, we give the age pyramids for Hindu and Muslim populations of India.
Both pyramids show a distinct narrowing of the 0-4 year cohort and a distinct
bulging at 5-19 years. But overall, the pyramid for Muslims is much wider at
the base, and the bulge at 5-19 years is much more marked for them as compared
to the Hindus.
The
gender ratio of Muslims is distinctly better than the Hindus in the lower age
groups; from age 40 onwards, the gender ratio of Hindus becomes better than the
Muslims.
These
differences in the age-structure of the populations of the two communities have
important demographic and sociological consequences. One of the obvious
consequences, of course, is the higher growth rate of Muslims which is likely
to persist for several decades as their relatively larger cohorts in the lower
age groups and the larger number of women in these cohorts grow up to
child-bearing age. Differing age pyramids of the two communities indicate that
much of the difference in their growth may be attributed to higher natural
fertility of the Muslim population.
Incidentally,
there is relatively larger number of women then men in the 55+ age groups for
both Hindus and Muslims. This is a universal phenomenon; in most populations of
the world, women who survive the childbearing phase, tend to live longer than
men.
There
are many other interesting facts that can be read from these age pyramids. But the
core fact is that the age pyramids of the Hindu and Muslim populations of India
look quite different from each other, and it seems unlikely that the two would
become similar anytime in the immediate future. The differences in the age
pyramids of the two communities are even starker in many of the major States.
Christians
Age
pyramid of the Christian population is much narrower at the bottom than
the Hindus, and the bulge at 5-19 years is less pronounced. In general, the
pyramid indicates a stabilising population. Interesting, in this population,
there are more women then men in all age groups of 20 years and above. These
peculiarities are because a large majority of the Christians are in Kerala and
the neighbouring southern States; these States, in general, have lower growth
rates and better gender ratio than the average of India.
The
lower fertility of Christians indicated in this pyramid also implies that
further accretions to their population are occurring through conversion and not
natural growth.
Sikhs
The
age pyramid for Sikhs is much narrower at the bottom than the Hindus; it is
considerably narrower than even the Christians. It has a significant bulge at
the 10-24 years age groups; and there is much larger proportion of the
population in the higher age groups; the difference is especially large for 64+
populations. This indicates a stabilising and healthier population. But, the
gender ratio among Sikhs is much worse than others in all age groups. The ratio
is very low for the lower age groups; and, contrary to the normal pattern,
there are more men than women among them, even at higher ages.
Buddhists
The
age pyramid of Buddhists is somewhat similar to the Christians and shows the
same peculiarities. Part of the reason is that a majority of the Buddhists are
from Maharashtra, which shares the demographic attributes of much of south
India.
Jains
The
age pyramid of Jains looks distinctly different than others. It is narrow at
the base, and the three cohorts in the 15-29 years age group are nearly equal
in width. The pyramid indicates a probably constricting population. The gender
ratio of Jains in the lower age groups is worse than the Hindus, but not as bad
as that of Sikhs.
The
age pyramids of the six major religious communities in the Indian population
thus largely confirm what we have earlier seen from their growth rates. But,
these pyramids add a great deal of detail to our understanding of these
populations, and raise new questions that need further exploration.
Below,
we look at the age pyramids of the significant religious communities in some of
the more interesting States from the perspective of religious demography.
Haryana
In
Haryana, the difference in the growth of Hindus and Muslims is very large.
During 2001-11, Muslims have registered a growth of 39 percent compared to 16
percent for the Hindus; and Muslims have 21.8 children in the 0-6 age group per
hundred of the population compared to 12.8 for the Hindus.
This
large difference in the fertility and growth of the two populations is
distinctly visible in the age pyramids of the two communities. The age
pyramids for Hindus in Haryana is not very different from the all India
population of Hindus. But, the pyramid for Muslims is nearly 70 percent wider
at the base than that of the Hindus.
The
gender ratio of Muslims in Haryana is better than that of Hindus in the lower
age groups; but in the 60+ age groups the gender ratio of Hindus is distinctly
higher.
The growth rate of Muslims during 2001-11 has
been higher than that of Hindus in all major States, and in many States, the
difference in the two rates is similar to that in Haryana. The age pyramids of
Haryana are thus representative of many other States.
Kerala
Kerala
is said to be far ahead of India in social parameters; therefore, in terms of
fertility and growth of population, Kerala is far behind the average of India. Population
of the State has grown by less than 5 percent during 2001-11, and there are
only 10.4 children in the 0-6 age group per hundred of the population compared
to the Indian average of 13.6.
There
is not much difference in the literacy rates of different communities; the
total and female literacy rate in the State is above 90 percent for all. Yet
the age pyramid of the Muslim population of Kerala is distinctly different than
that of the other two major religious communities of the State, the Hindus and
the Christians.
The pyramids for both Hindus and
Christians have a narrow base and fairly wide cohorts running up to higher age
groups. Both pyramids indicate populations whose growth has been slowing down
for several years. The pyramid for Muslims is, however, nearly 70 percent wider
at the base than that of Hindus and Christians; the gap is similar to that in
Haryana. This gap reflects in the higher growth of Muslims; during 2001-11,
Muslims in the State have grown by 12.84 percent, compared to the growth of
2.23 percent of Hindus and 1.38 percent of Christians.
Incidentally, gender
ratio of Muslims in Kerala is somewhat better than the others; it is 1,125 for
the Muslims compared to 1,077 for Hindus and 1,051 for the Christians. Notice
that the ratio is above 1,000 for all communities; for Hindus and Muslims there
are more women than men in all age groups above 20; for Christians, the number
of women become higher than men from age 25 and above.
Assam
In Assam also, the age pyramids of
Hindus and Muslims are considerably different. The age
pyramid of Hindus indicates a population with sharply slowing growth, while the
age pyramid of Muslims is distinctly wider at the base and distinctly more
conical. This is reflected in the much higher growth of Muslims in Assam during
2001-11; Muslims have registered a growth of 21.8 percent compared to the Hindu
growth of 10.8 percent. The number of children of age 0-6 years for Muslims is
19.42 per hundred of the population for Muslims compared to 12.32 for Hindus.
This gap of 7 children per hundred is very wide indeed.
Uttar
Pradesh
In Uttar Pradesh, which accommodates
3.85 crore of the total 17.22 crore Muslims in India, the age pyramid of
Muslims is not as widely different from the Hindus as in
several other States, including Haryana, Kerala and Assam that we have
mentioned above. Unlike in these latter States, the Muslim age pyramid is only
about 14 percent wider at the base compared the Hindu pyramid. And for both
Hindus and Muslims, the 0-4 cohorts are distinctly smaller than 5-9 and 10-14
cohorts.
In fact, the difference in the number
of children of 0-6 years per hundred of the population is not very high in the
State, there are 17.10 children per hundred among Muslims and 15.01 per hundred
among Hindus. The difference in the growth rate of Hindus and Muslims in Uttar
Pradesh is, however, quite high. During 2001-11, Muslims have grown by 25.2
percent and Hindus by 18.9 percent.
The difference in the growth rate of
Muslims and Hindus varies widely from region to region and district to
district. To understand the population dynamics of this large State, we need to
probably look at the district-wise populations. But from the age pyramids of
the total population of the State, it is obvious that in the contention for
demographic space, Muslims do not have the same advantage in Uttar Pradesh, as
they have in many other States. During 2001-11, Hindus have actually grown
faster than Muslims in many parts of the State. This is true also in Bihar and
to an extent in Jharkhand.
The age pyramids of the State, however,
do show that the gender ratio of Hindus is considerably poorer than the Muslims
for all age groups.
West Bengal
West
Bengal is another State with a considerable Muslim population. It accommodates
2.47 crore of the total 17.22 crore Muslims in India; and the proportion of
Muslims in the population is as high as 27 percent.
The
age pyramids of the two communities in West Bengal are very different
from each other. The Muslim pyramid is about fifty percent broader at the base
as compared to Hindus and is much more conical in shape. The bottom two cohorts
for Muslims are indeed shorter than the 10-14 year cohort, indicating some
decline in fertility. But, the corresponding Hindu cohorts are considerably
smaller in relative terms.
As
in several other States, the gender ratio of Muslims is higher than the Hindus
in the lower age groups, but in the 25+ age groups, the gender ratio for Hindus
becomes considerably better than Muslims.
Maharashtra
Population dynamics of Maharashtra is very
interesting. It has a significant presence of Muslims and Buddhists. There are 1.30
crore Muslims in the total population of 11.24 crore; and there are 65 lakh
Buddhists in the State. Growth rate of the total population has been declining
rapidly for the last two decades. The growth rate of Muslims, however, was
rising till 1991-2001 and remains much higher than the others. The growth of
Buddhists, who are largely neo-Buddhists, has been declining faster than the
Hindus.
The
Buddhist pyramid looks similar to the Hindus, except that it is slightly
narrower at the base and indicates a better gender ratio in all age groups. For
the sake of comparison, we have also given the age pyramid of the Scheduled
Caste population of the State. The age pyramid of the Scheduled Caste is only
slightly wider at the base than Hindus. The pyramids indicate that
neo-Buddhists are a somewhat advanced group compared to the Hindus; and, the
Scheduled Castes are also not far behind. In total and female literacy rates
and in the number of children per hundred of population, the Scheduled Castes
of Maharashtra are slightly behind the Hindus and the neo-Buddhists are
slightly ahead.
The
pyramid for Muslims looks very curious. The base of the pyramid is about a
quarter wider than the Hindus. But more interestingly, while there is a
shortening of the cohorts below 20 years, as it is happening for all
communities, yet this shortening in the case of Muslims is rather slight as compared
to others.
As in several other States, the gender ratio of
Muslims is better than that of Hindus in age groups below 19; for 19+ cohorts,
gender ratio of Hindus is better than the Muslims. Interestingly, gender ratios
of both the Buddhist and the Scheduled Caste populations are also better than
the Hindus for all age groups.
Conclusion
We have
seen the age pyramids of different religious communities for the population of
India and of some of the representative States. The pyramids indicate:
1. Age pyramids of the Muslim
population of India and of many of the States – including States that differ widely in their
population dynamics, like Haryana, Kerala and Assam – are distinctly different
from the Hindu population. The pyramids of Muslims are wider at the base and more
conical in shape; and, in general, the gender ratio of Muslims is better than
the Hindus, especially at the younger ages. These pyramids indicate that the higher
growth rates of Muslims are likely to persist for several decades as their
relatively larger cohorts in the younger age groups and the larger numbers of
women in these cohorts grow up to the child bearing age.
2. Age pyramids for the larger
States like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are more complex. The age pyramids for
Muslims are wider at the base even there, but the difference is not as large as
in States like Haryana and Kerala. It seems that in these States, Hindus have
joined the contention with Muslims for the demographic space. As we have seen,
in the earlier posts, in some districts and regions of Bihar and Jharkhand, and
also Uttar Pradesh, Hindu growth during 2001-11 has been better than Muslims.
For these States, it would be instructive to look at age pyramids of the
populations of different districts and regions, individually.
3. Age pyramids of Christians,
Buddhists, Sikhs and Jains indicate populations that have begun to stabilise
and perhaps contract. This is also true for Hindus in Kerala and to an extent
even in Assam.
4. Age pyramids of Buddhists, in
general, indicate a population that is somewhat more advanced in demographic
attributes than the Hindus.
5. In Maharashtra, which
accommodates an overwhelming majority of the new converts to Buddhism, age
pyramids of the Buddhists indicate that they are somewhat more advanced than
the Hindus of the State; the age pyramid of the Scheduled Castes, from which
most of the neo-Buddhists are drawn, indicates that they are also not much
behind the Hindus in demographic attributes. Gender ratio of both the Buddhists
and the Scheduled Castes are better than the Hindus for all age groups.
6. Age pyramid of Jains indicates
a population that has already begun to contract or is on the verge of it. Since
Jains are essentially a sub-group within the Vaishyas, their age pyramid may be
representative of the Vaishyas, and perhaps also Brahmins, in general and may
suggest that populations of the so-called ‘upper castes’ in India have begun to
reach the stage of contraction.
7. Age pyramids graphically show
the differences in the population dynamics of different communities. But these
also give a great deal of information about both the sociological and demographic
attributes of different population.
8. It is instructive, educative
and perhaps entertaining to look at these deeply meaningful graphics for
different religious communities. These do indicate that there is much that
separates different religious communities and groups in India.
population wise also required
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