Population Division of the Department of Social and Economic Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat has recently released the twenty-eighth edition of the World Population Prospects 2024, giving the latest estimates and projections of the population of the world, its different regions and countries. These estimates and projections confirm that the great expansion of population that the world has witnessed since 1950, after the World War II, is now coming to an end. The world as a whole and many of its regions and countries are entering the stage of low fertility and stable or declining population.
The trend of declining fertility in many parts of the world has been observed for some time now, but the latest edition of the Prospects (WPP 2024) shows that, in some of the most populous countries of the world, the decline has been faster than what was anticipated even a decade ago. This rapid change in the trends is not only leading to the population of the world stabilizing at a lower than anticipated level, but also causing a drastic change in the relative share of different regions and countries in the population of the world.
In particular, the share of Europe and Northern America that form the core area of the western civilisation has declined sharply from 29 percent in 1950 to 14.5 percent now in 2020 and is projected to keep declining further. The decline is propelled by the unanticipatedly high growth of populations in Asia and Africa, particularly the latter. This core non-western part of the world already had a share of 64 percent in 1950. That share has risen to 77 percent in 2020 and is projected to keep rising.
Such changes in the relative demographic weight of different regions of the world are likely to have significant socio-economic and geo-strategic consequences. That is, of course, the reason why the United Nations and many other international agencies keep continuously studying and projecting the population trends across the world.
The question before us is whether this major shift in the demographic balance of the world be allowed to proceed in a natural and harmonious manner. Or, would there be interventions to ensure that the western world retains a reasonably significant demographic weight in the world. In any case, the world seems to be at a turning point. The demographic changes are inexorably propelling us towards a new world order.
In this note, we describe the main trends that WPP 2024 foretells.
World and the Continents
In Table 1 below, we have used the figures of WPP 2024 to compile estimates and projections of the population of the world and the five continental regions into which the United Nations divides the world. [1] In the last two columns, we give the peak population that the world and each of the continents is expected to reach in the course of the twenty-first century and the year when this is likely to happen.
Table 1: Population of the World and the Continents, 1950-2100 (in thousands) | ||||||
Period/Region | 1950 | 2020 | 2050 | 2100 | Peak | Year |
World | 2,471,424 | 7,851,415 | 9,644,036 | 10,186,608 | 10,289,515 | 2084 |
Africa | 225,440 | 1,364,276 | 2,448,400 | 3,807,042 | >3,807,042 | >2100 |
Asia | 1,354,938 | 4,671,400 | 5,278,097 | 4,623,706 | 5,288,539 | 2054 |
Europe | 546,284 | 749,925 | 704,160 | 593,113 | 749,925 | 2020 |
Latin America and the Caribbean | 165,627 | 644,686 | 729,816 | 615,306 | 730,775 | 2053 |
Northern America | 166,725 | 377,287 | 426,071 | 474,607 | >474,607 | >2100 |
Oceania | 12,409 | 43,841 | 57,492 | 72,834 | >72,834 | >2100 |
Note: Numbers for 1950 and 2020 are estimates and those for 2050 and 2100 are the medium projections of WPP 2024. | ||||||
Population 1950-2100
The figures show that the population of the world has grown considerably from 2.47 billion in 1950 to 7.85 billion in 2020, multiplying by 3.2 times in these 70 years. According to the medium projections of WPP 2024, it shall keep growing slowly for the next six decades and peak at 10.29 billion in 2084, when it shall begin to decline and drop to 10.19 billion by the end of the century. This is contrary to expectations. Even ten years ago, the projection was that the population of the world would keep growing well into the next century. [2] The fertility of the world, as we describe later, has begun to collapse faster than anyone expected.
Africa
Of the five continental regions into which the UN segregates the data, Africa has grown the fastest, from less than a quarter billion in 1950 to 1.36 billion in 2020. It shall keep growing faster than all other continents, though at a slowing pace, throughout the century and beyond. The population of the continent shall reach 2.45 billion in 2050 and 3.81 billion in 2100.
The growth of Africa is perhaps the main story of the recent times. In 1950, its population was only about half of Europe. By 2020, it has become 1.8 times that of Europe. By the end of the century, it shall begin to rival that of Asia.
Asia
Asia, the most populous continent of the world, had a population of 1.35 billion in 1950. It has grown 3.45 times to reach 4.67 billion in 2020. In recent decades, the growth of Asian population has begun to slow down considerably. Population of China, the largest country of Asia and the world, has already peaked in 2021 and begun to decline fairly rapidly. India, the second largest country until recently, has overtaken China to become the most populous country of Asia and the world in 2023. But growth is slowing down in India also and its population is projected to peak at 1.70 billion in 2062.
The population of Asia, as a whole, shall continue to grow slowly to 5.28 billion by 2050. Shortly afterwards, in 2054, it shall peak at 5.29 billion. By the end of the century, it would have declined by more than 600 million to 4.62 billion.
At 4.62 billion in 2100, Asia shall still be the largest continent of the world by population. Incidentally, Asia is also the largest continent by area. Africa, the second largest continent by area, shall be behind Asia by about 800 million people in 2100, but it shall keep growing beyond the turn of the century, when Asia would be in rapid decline.
Europe
In 1950, Europe had a population of 546 million, which was twice that of Africa at 225 million, though the geographical area of Europe is only one-third that of Africa. The population of Europe has grown, albeit at a pace much slower than that of the world, to reach 750 million in 2020. According to the WPP 2024 estimates, this is the peak population of Europe. Since 2020, the population of Europe has begun declining. The continent shall lose about 46 million people dropping to 704 million in 2050. By 2100, Europe shall have only 593 million people.
This decline of the population of Europe, relative to other parts of the world, is the second most significant story that the population estimates and projections tell us. The most significant is the rise of Africa that we have mentioned earlier.
Latin America and the Caribbean
The population of this region in 1950 was 166 million. It has grown considerably faster than the average of the world to 645 million in 2020. According to the projections of WPP 2024, it shall keep growing slowly to reach 730 million in 2050. It shall peak shortly afterwards, in 2053, at about the same level of 730 million. From then onwards, it shall begin declining and lose more than a hundred million to reach 615 million at the end of the century.
In 2050, this region would become the third most populous region of the world, moving ahead of Europe. It is likely to surpass the population of Europe in 2042 when both regions would be at around 720 million.
Northern America
Northern America had a population of around 167 million in 1950. It has more than doubled to 377 million in 2020. Population of this continental region is projected to keep growing throughout the twenty-first century and beyond. It shall reach 426 million in 2050 and 475 million in 2100.
The continued growth of the population of Northern America would be fuelled mainly by immigration. Natural fertility of the region, as we see below, has already declined to far below the replacement level. This decline of fertility in the continent seems to have become a matter of much public and scholarly concern, especially in the United States of America.
Oceania
The population of Oceania in 1950 was 12.4 million. It has grown to 43.8 million in 2020. Like Northern America, the population of this continental region is also projected to keep growing through the twenty-first century and beyond. It is likely to grow to 57.5 million in 2050 and 72.8 million in 2100.
Like in Northern America, this projected growth in population of Oceania shall be propelled mainly by immigration. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of the region is projected to fall below the replacement level of 2.1 in 2029. Though, there are sub-regions within this region where the TFR shall remain above the replacement level well into the second half of the century.
How different continents have multiplied
In Table 2, we compile the factor by which the population of the world and the five continental regions has multiplied during 1950 to 2100. This gives further understanding of how the world and its different regions have grown and are likely to grow over the course of the century.
As seen in the Table, population of the world and each of the continental regions, except Europe, has multiplied considerably since 1950. That growth spurt has now subsided and the growth everywhere is projected to be much subdued during the next 80 years of this century. Within this overall picture of stabilizing populations across the world, there are considerable differences in the growth pattern of different continental regions, which we describe below.
Table 2: Multiplication Factor of Population between 1950 and 2100 | ||||
Period/ | 1950-2020 | 2020-2050 | 2050-2100 | 1950-2100 |
World | 3.18 | 1.23 | 1.06 | 4.12 |
Africa | 6.05 | 1.79 | 1.55 | 16.89 |
Asia | 3.45 | 1.13 | 0.88 | 3.41 |
Europe | 1.37 | 0.94 | 0.84 | 1.09 |
Latin America and the Caribbean | 3.89 | 1.13 | 0.84 | 3.72 |
Northern America | 2.26 | 1.13 | 1.11 | 2.85 |
Oceania | 3.53 | 1.31 | 1.27 | 5.87 |
World
The population of the world has more than tripled, multiplying by 3.18 times, between 1950 and 2020. In the following eighty years, leading up to the end of the century, it shall rise much more slowly, adding only about 30 percent to the total. As we have mentioned earlier, total population of the world would have peaked in 2084 and would be in a declining phase at the end of the century.
Africa
The population of Africa has multiplied by more than 6 times between 1950 and 2020. In the next eighty years, it shall rise at a slower pace, but still multiply by another 2.8 times. In the period between 1950 to 2100, the population of Africa would have grown nearly 17 times.
Asia
The population of Asia has multiplied by 3.45 times between 1950 and 2020. In the next three years up to 2050, it shall rise at a much slower pace and add only about 13 percent more people. Between 2050 and 2100, it shall decline by about 12 percent. Therefore, the population of the continent in 2100 shall be about the same as now.
Europe
The population of Europe has grown by about 37 percent between 1950 and 2020. The growth spurt for that continent is already over with 2020 marking the peak of its population. From now on, the population of Europe shall begin declining. By the end of the century, the decline shall wipe out much of the rise in population that has taken place between 1950 and 2020. In 2100, the population of the continent shall be only 9 percent above that in 1950.
Latin America and the Caribbean
The population of this continental region has grown by nearly 4 times, 3.89 times to be exact, between 1950 and 2020. It shall add another 13 percent to by 2050. It shall reach its peak shortly after that in 2053. In 2100, the population shall be 16 percent less than that in 2050. Yet, between 1950 and 2100, the population of the region would have multiplied by 3.72 times.
Northern America
The population of Northern America has multiplied 2.26 times between 1950 and 2020. It shall continue to grow slowly, multiplying by another 1.13 times between 2020 and 2050 and further 1.11 percent by 2100.
Between 1950 and 2100, the population of the continent would have multiplied by 2.85 times.
Oceania
The population of Oceania has multiplied by 3.53 times between 1950 and 2020. During the next 80 years, it shall keep growing at a pace faster than that of all other continental regions except Africa. At the end of the century, its population would be 5.87 times what it was in 1950. The expansion would be the second largest after Africa, though on a small base.
Fertility Indicators
The sharp decline in the rate of growth of populations and the impending reversal of growth in much of the world that we have noticed above is driven by a sharp decline in fertility in almost all regions. The variation in growth of population in different regions is explained largely by the varying fertility patterns, though mortality and migration have also played a role.
In Table 3 below, we have compiled the changing pattern of two of the major indicators of fertility, TFR and NRR, for the world and the five continental regions that we are considering here. TFR or the Total Fertility Rate measures the number of children an average woman today is likely to bear over her whole reproductive lifespan. For a population to remain stable, TFR must be somewhat above 2, so that every couple leaves behind another couple that would live up to the reproductive age to replace it. NRR or the Net Reproductive Rate measures the number of surviving daughters an average mother would bear in her entire reproductive span. An NRR of 1 means that a mother shall leave behind exactly one mother to replace her.
Table 3: Fertility indicators of the world and different continents, 1950-2100 | ||||||||
World/ | TFR | NRR | ||||||
Continent | 1950 | 2020 | 2050 | 2100 | 1950 | 2020 | 2050 | 2100 |
World | 4.85 | 2.32 | 2.10 | 1.84 | 1.63 | 1.06 | 0.99 | 0.88 |
Africa | 6.52 | 4.24 | 2.79 | 2.02 | 1.81 | 1.84 | 1.28 | 0.96 |
Asia | 5.69 | 1.97 | 1.82 | 1.72 | 1.78 | 0.91 | 0.87 | 0.83 |
Europe | 2.70 | 1.47 | 1.50 | 1.58 | 1.14 | 0.71 | 0.73 | 0.77 |
Latin America and the Caribbean | 5.79 | 1.87 | 1.69 | 1.65 | 2.06 | 0.89 | 0.81 | 0.80 |
Northern America | 3.11 | 1.60 | 1.62 | 1.63 | 1.44 | 0.77 | 0.78 | 0.79 |
Oceania | 3.69 | 2.14 | 1.93 | 1.73 | 1.55 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 0.83 |
Total Fertility Rate, 1950-2100
As seen in Table 3, TFR of the world and each of the five continental region was considerably above 2 in 1950. The average of the world was as high as 4.85, with mothers in Africa, Asia and Latin America (including the Caribbean) expecting to give birth to more than 5 children on the average in their reproductive lifespan.
By 2020, the average TFR of the world has come down to 2.32. It has reached below the replacement level of 2.10 in every region except Africa where it still remains high at 4.24 and Oceania where the TFR is only slightly above 2.10.
By 2050, the TFR for the whole population of the world would reach the replacement level of 2.10 and it shall be below 2.10 for all continental regions except Africa. In Africa, it would be 2.79. Mothers in Africa would still expect to give birth to considerably more than 2 children in 2050, while in all other regions, the number would have fallen considerably below 2.
By 2100, TFR of the world at 1.84 would be considerably below the replacement level. By then, TFR of Africa would also decline to the replacement level. According to the medium projections of WPP 2024, TFR of Africa would reach below 2.1 only towards the end of the century, in 2092.
It is noteworthy that, according to the projections of WPP 2024, the TFR of Europe and North America shall begin to slowly improve after 2050, while it would be declining further in every other continental region of the world. This slight improvement in the TFR of the two core continental regions of the western civilisation would probably be a consequence of the intense concern about the declining fertility that is being expressed in several parts of the world.
Net Reproduction Rate, 1950-2010
In 1950, just as TFR of the world and of the five continental regions was above the replacement level of 2, the Net Reproduction Rate was also above the replacement level of 1. However, it was not quite as high as the TFR. In the world, as well as in each of its continental region, a mother in the 1950 could expect to give birth to at least one daughter to replace her, but the number was everywhere less than 2, except in the Latin America and the Caribbean. Average of the world was 1.63. It was the least for Europe at 1.14.
By 2020, NRR of the world has declined to 1.06, barely above the replacement level of 1. It is already below one for Asia, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean and Northern America. For Oceania it equals the replacement rate of 1.00. Only Africa has an NRR considerably above the replacement level, at 1.84.
By 2050, NRR of the world as a whole would decline to below the replacement level. In every continental region of the world, except Africa, a mother on the average would leave behind considerably less than 1 mother. At that stage, NRR of Africa would be 1.28. By 2100, NRR of the world shall drop to 0.88 and it would be below one in every region including Africa.
Collapse of Fertility
TFR and NRR figures in Table 3 indicate a collapse of fertility across large parts of the world. If it were not for Africa continuing to sustain the momentum and keeping the fertility rates above the replacements levels, the population of the world would have shrunk rather sharply in the course of the remaining decades of the twenty-first century. If Africa had followed the population and fertility trends of Asia, the population of the world in 2100 would have been around 7 billion instead of the projected 10 billion.
As we have been mentioning, this collapse of fertility is becoming a matter of serious national concern for many countries.
Changing share of different regions
As we have seen, fertility and growth rates of populations have begun to fall everywhere in the world. But the growth achieved during 1950-2020 and the projections for the remaining eight decades of the century differ considerably from region to region. These differences have already led to a drastic change in the share of the five continental regions in the population of the world between 1950-2020. This change is projected to become even more pronounced as the process of demographic transition proceeds across the world.
In Table 4, we have compiled the changing shares in the population of the five continental regions in the period from 1950 to 2100. As seen in the Table, the distribution of population across different regions of the world has changed drastically in the seventy years since 1950, which has been a period of extraordinary growth of population. Now that the world has entered a period of declining fertility and growth, these changes are becoming even more rapid and substantial.
Table 4: Share of different continents in the population, 1950-2100 | |||||
Share in the World Population | 1950 | 2020 | 2050 | 2100 | Area |
World | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
|
Africa | 9.12 | 17.38 | 25.39 | 37.37 | 33.3 |
Asia | 54.82 | 59.50 | 54.73 | 45.39 | 44.6 |
Europe | 22.10 | 9.55 | 7.30 | 5.82 | 10.2 |
Latin America and the Caribbean | 6.70 | 8.21 | 7.57 | 6.04 | 20.1 |
Northern America | 6.75 | 4.81 | 4.42 | 4.66 | 24.7 |
Oceania | 0.50 | 0.56 | 0.60 | 0.72 | 8.9 |
Note: Area of different continents is in million km2 and is taken from the Wikipedia. | |||||
Rise of Africa
The most remarkable change in the pattern of population distribution in the world is the remarkable growth in the share of Africa. In 1950, Africa formed only 9.1 percent of the population of the world. In 2020, the share of the continent has risen to 17.4 percent. It is projected to keep rising in the following decades to reach 25.4 percent in 2050 and 37.4 percent in 2100.
Asia largely retains its share
While the share of Africa in the population of the world nearly doubled between 1950 and 2020, the share of Asia remained largely static, rising slightly from 54.8 to 59.5 percent. Unlike that of Africa, the share of Asia in the following decades is likely to decline. It is projected to reach 54.7 percent in 2050, which would be almost exactly the same as the share of 54.8 that the continent had in 1950. By 2100, its share shall further decline to 45.4 percent.
Notwithstanding, the decline, Asia, at the turn of the century, would still retain a significantly large share in the population of the world and its status as the most populous continent.
The combined share of Africa and Asia in 1950 was 64 percent. It has risen to 77 percent in 2020. It is projected to rise to 80 percent in 2050 and 83 precent in 2100.
Decline of Europe
The rise of Africa and the relatively stability of the share of Asia in the world has been accompanied by a drastic decline in the share of Europe. The continent formed 22.1 percent of the population of the world in 1950. In 2020, its share is only 9.6 percent. It is projected to fall further to 7.3 percent in 2050 and 5.8 percent in 2100.
This decline of Europe is the most decisive change in the distribution of population that has happened and is continuing to happen in the world. Europe has formed about a quarter of the population of the world since at least 1850. It is estimated that Europe formed more than 18 percent of the population of the world even in 1650, when the African continent had not yet been depopulated and accommodated a hundred million people, equal to the population of Europe at that time. [3]
Northern America
Northern America is the other core area of the Western civilisation after Europe. Its share in the population of the world has also declined significantly from 6.8 percent in 1950 to 4.8 percent in 2020. However, it is projected to decline only slightly to 4.4 percent by 2050 and then recover to 4.7 percent in 2100.
This projected marginal improvement in the share of Northern America shall be driven mainly by immigration. As we have seen in Table 3, the fertility indicators of the continent are also projected to marginally improve, but shall remain much below the replacement level throughout the twenty-first century.
As we have been saying, Europe and Northern America together form the core region of the western civilisation. The share of the two continents in the population of the world has halved, from around 29 percent in 1950 to 14.5 percent in 2020. It is projected to further decline to 11.7 percent in 2050 and 10.5 percent in 2100.
These changes are unexpectedly large
This sharp decline in the demographic weight of the western world was not expected or foreseen. In the mid-sixties, Farnand Braudel, the French philosopher of history of civilisations, could speculate that Europe and North America together would still constitute more than a quarter of the population of the world in 2000. [4] However, by 2000 the share of the two continents had already declined to less than 17 percent. The error that scholars like Braudel made was not in their estimates of the growth of Europe and the Northern American continent, but in underestimating the growth-momentum that Africa and, to a lesser extent, Asia were to acquire on being relieved of the colonial yoke. Braudel’s estimated the population of Africa to reach 360 million in 2000, when it actually rose to 851 million. His estimate of Asian population in 2000 at 2.6 billion was relatively less off the mark. Yet, the population of Asia in 2000 was 3.2 billion.
The share of different continents in the population of the world has changed in a way that the western world had not expected or foreseen. Such drastic changes in the relative distributions of population of different regions and civilisations can have drastic consequences. It is very unlikely that the projected decline of the share of the western world in the population to 11.5% in 2050 and 10.5% in 2100 and the corresponding rise of Africa and Asia to 80% in 2050 and 83% in 2100 shall be allowed to happen in a natural and harmonious manner.
Demographic projections of the kind the United Nations and several other international agencies make regularly are partly made to foresee changes that may alter the existing world order and take preventive actions to not let that happen.
In this note, we have looked at the changes in the distribution of population across large continental regions of the world. There are also similarly consequential changes occurring within the sub-regions and countries within the continents. We shall describe those changes in a subsequent note.
Conclusion
1. The latest edition of World Population Prospect 2024 published by the United Nations indicates that the population of the world and many of the regions and the countries within it has begun to stabilize and decline earlier than what was expected even a decade ago.
2. Total population of the world is now expected to reach its peak as early as in 2084 at around 10.3 billion. Population of Europe has already peaked in 2020 and is in decline now. Population of Asia and Latin America (including the Caribbean) is projected to peak in another three decades, in 2054 and 2053, respectively. Only Africa, Northern America and Oceania are now projected to keep growing beyond this century. In Northern America, the growth shall be slow, driven largely by immigration. In Oceania also, immigration shall be the main driver of growth. The percentage growth in its fairly small population shall be large but not substantial in absolute terms. The really substantial growth shall be in Africa, whose population is projected to nearly triple by the end of the century.
3. Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) of all continental regions of the world, except Africa and Oceania, have already declined below the replacement level in 2020. In Oceania, these indicators are only slightly above the replacement level and are likely to fall below that level within the current decade. The fertility rates for Africa are projected to fall below that level only in the last decade of the twenty-first century.
4. These sharp changes in the fertility rates and growth rates of populations in different continental regions of the world have led to a drastic change in the share of these regions in the population of the world. In particular, the share of Europe and Northern America, the two continents that form the core region of the western civilisation, has almost exactly halved from nearly 29 percent in 1950 to 14.5 percent in 2020 and it is projected to decline further to 11.7 percent in 2050 and 10.5 percent in 2100. Correspondingly, the share of Asia and Africa has risen from around 64 percent in 1950 to 77 percent in 2020 and is projected to rise to 80 percent in 2050 and 83 percent at the end of the century.
5. These changes are drastic. The prospect of the share of the core region of the west declining from 29 percent to just around 10 percent is not something that was expected even three or four decades ago. Such drastic changes have geopolitical consequences. The consequences can be such as to negate the projections and retain the demographic weight of the western world at a significant level. We need to be concerned about such consequences. It seems that the world is at a turning point, and the demographic changes are inexorably propelling us towards a new world order.
6. In this note, we have discussed the changing distribution of population among different continental regions of the world. There is projected to be much change in the share of different sub-regions and countries within the continents. We shall discuss this in a subsequent note.
J. K. Bajaj
July 2025
Chennai
[1] World Population Prospects 2024, Compact Estimates and Medium Projection Table, available at https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/EXCEL_FILES/1_General/WPP2024_GEN_F01_DEMOGRAPHIC_INDICATORS_COMPACT.xlsx
[2] World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results, United Nations, New York, 2024, pp. vii and 1.
[3] A. M. Carr-Saunders, World Population, Clarendon Press, Oxford 1936. Quoted from Ashok Joshi, et al, Religious Demography of India, Centre for Policy Studies, Chennai 2003, pp. 4 and 5.
[4] Farnand Braudel, A History of Civilizations, Penguin 1993, p. xxxix. Braudel’s work was first published in French as early as in 1963.
